• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1182

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 16, 2022 00:03:52
    ACUS11 KWNS 160003
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160003=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-160130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1182
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0703 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

    Areas affected...eastern Wisconsin to the upper peninsula of
    Michigan and northern lower Michigan

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 371...372...

    Valid 160003Z - 160130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 371, 372 continues.

    SUMMARY...The organized cluster of storms may maintain considerable
    strength across at least portions of northern Lake Michigan into
    northern lower Michigan by 9-11 PM EDT, posing a risk for
    potentially damaging wind gusts. It is not certain a new severe
    weather watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored for
    this possibility.

    DISCUSSION...An organized mesoscale convective system has evolved,
    with a number of embedded lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic
    circulations, pockets of strengthening rear inflow and near surface meso-vortices. As a rapid forward (northeastward and eastward)
    propagation continues, the impacts of a less unstable, more
    inhibited boundary-layer near and east of Lake Michigan are unclear.
    Rapid Refresh suggests that a drier lower/mid tropospheric air mass
    is advecting northward through southern portions of Lake Michigan,
    but a more moist environment farther north, coupled with lift
    associated warm advection, may maintain vigorous slightly elevated
    storms across northern Lake Michigan into northern lower Michigan by
    01-03Z. This could be accompanied by at least a continuing risk for
    localized damaging wind gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 06/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-bcsENTR4xhWvS1HN-h4yd_pAZWw_WEk5vdXuvq7QFoYG-NIzp_BDy-HGPmzErwN-3L49sRGq= amQ49oVc46RaiWVQsE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...

    LAT...LON 44988755 45578725 46318707 46548578 45908346 45138357
    44648440 44338536 43998685 42568860 42588954 43978841
    44988755=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 21, 2023 00:43:46
    ACUS11 KWNS 210043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210043=20
    LAZ000-210215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1182
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0743 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

    Areas affected...South-central Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346...

    Valid 210043Z - 210215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts will remain possible
    into the early evening in south-central Louisiana.

    DISCUSSION...Large hail, with isolated reports greater than 2
    inches, have been the main hazard in WW 346 over the last couple of
    hours. Convection in southern Louisiana continues to push slowly
    westward into the greater buoyancy. New updrafts along this linear
    segment will remain capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A
    cluster of supercell structures has been ongoing just south of
    Alexandria. This activity has generally been moving slowly
    southward. KPOE radar imagery shows outflow boundaries emanating
    from these storms. Coincidentally, storms have appeared slightly
    more disorganized as they have ingested this outflow. Capping
    evident on the observed 00Z LCH sounding should keep this activity
    from moving much more to the west. A threat for large hail and
    damaging winds is expected to continue for another 2-3 hours.

    ..Wendt.. 06/21/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4HK2hBoDLnDCOPz3uoSL8NZNUG_NVoIlC5M4Q-RvRxUACsb59CrwKiCUiZ29v5NtsvfLuJppi= MiU9BRBNxdNGcGvbGM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 29919250 30419279 31099273 31319259 31219205 30549157
    30049111 29629082 29479084 29309095 29289110 29299144
    29429171 29649225 29919250=20


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