• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1178

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 15, 2022 20:45:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 152045
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152044=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-152245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1178
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

    Areas affected...portions of the western Carolinas into central and
    eastern Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 152044Z - 152245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may become more numerous later this
    afternoon and evening. A broader potential for isolated damaging
    wind gusts may evolve if clustering develops.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2135 UTC, regional satellite and radar imagery
    showed several small clusters of thunderstorms ongoing/developing
    across the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians on the
    eastern periphery of a large mid-level ridge. Driven mostly by
    diurnal heating and subtle orographic influences, little
    organization has been noted thus far. While forcing is quite
    limited, additional storm formation appears quite possible through
    the remainder of the diurnal cycle. 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE will
    support stronger updrafts where convective temperatures are
    breached. With little vertical shear present (EBWD <15 kt),
    organization of ongoing loose multi-cell clusters will hinge upon
    downdraft consolidation and greater cold pool development late this
    afternoon and evening. Should this occur, as hinted by some hi-res
    NWP, an isolated damaging wind threat may arise with high
    PWAT/water-loaded downdrafts and steep low-level lapse rates.
    Uncertainty remains considerable, but the greatest risk for a
    loosely organized cluster/weak MCS may evolve across portions of
    southern SC and central GA into this evening. Conditions will be
    monitored, but weather watch consideration is highly conditional
    upon further storm intensification/organization.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/15/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9LRMZlNYrNu4lIke313O4_A6hb8DCf9OO2C52UzQ7lzbpKXKdlK-fwXdg2A3c_HAxQvIWB_gS= qblh6zSJBArbdGrVMQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...
    TAE...

    LAT...LON 35968033 33848098 32778128 32068168 31868222 31828305
    31918381 32138425 32458460 33068487 33798516 34718476
    34908453 35218397 36048243 36338159 36358106 35968033=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 20, 2023 22:02:13
    ACUS11 KWNS 202202
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202201=20
    LAZ000-MSZ000-210000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1178
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0501 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

    Areas affected...Southeastern and south-central Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 202201Z - 210000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible
    with a storm cluster moving westward into south-central Louisiana. A
    watch is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Large buoyancy and modest effective shear values are in
    place again across parts of southern Louisiana. A cluster of strong
    to severe storms continues to move westward into the greater
    buoyancy. Other isolated cellular activity has thus far been slow to
    become sustained, likely due to warm air aloft present on the
    observed 12Z LCH sounding. MRMS MESH data has shown some tendency
    for newer storm cores to have 1-1.5 inch hail signatures. Isolated
    large hail and damaging winds will continue to be possible into the
    early evening. The western extent of the severe threat will be
    limited by the warmer air aloft. A watch is possible this evening
    should convective trends warrant.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4nLEhJ__OpX9UD8Peoln7gzip1co1XwuxJAMbAlXWNH-AQjKI-wHvUvubECrNp5m_ynVdDWmn= Iz2o443iyx3rHwvFo8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 29119104 29359187 29559220 30069263 30699309 31239325
    31419289 31369232 30949105 30569083 29829035 29319019
    29069053 29119104=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 21, 2023 00:01:26
    ACUS11 KWNS 202202
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202201=20
    LAZ000-MSZ000-210000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1178
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0501 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

    Areas affected...Southeastern and south-central Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 202201Z - 210000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible
    with a storm cluster moving westward into south-central Louisiana. A
    watch is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Large buoyancy and modest effective shear values are in
    place again across parts of southern Louisiana. A cluster of strong
    to severe storms continues to move westward into the greater
    buoyancy. Other isolated cellular activity has thus far been slow to
    become sustained, likely due to warm air aloft present on the
    observed 12Z LCH sounding. MRMS MESH data has shown some tendency
    for newer storm cores to have 1-1.5 inch hail signatures. Isolated
    large hail and damaging winds will continue to be possible into the
    early evening. The western extent of the severe threat will be
    limited by the warmer air aloft. A watch is possible this evening
    should convective trends warrant.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7uIr0KCbWkXTe4QoUd624zoyUb6E0YU941xO3ACDO4UcRxr3f4N1VyYnhDVeLx4glCaNHDmza= nFUxvP0PfWDjU2WFKA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 29119104 29359187 29559220 30069263 30699309 31239325
    31419289 31369232 30949105 30569083 29829035 29319019
    29069053 29119104=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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