• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1177

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 15, 2022 20:20:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 152020
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152019=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-152145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1177
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0319 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

    Areas affected...portions of western/central WI

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 371...

    Valid 152019Z - 152145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 371 continues.

    SUMMARY...Increasing potential for tornadoes and large hail expected
    in a corridor across west-central into central WI over the next
    couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Initially messy convection developing along and just
    ahead of the surface cold front across northeast IA and western WI
    is showing signs of organization over the last 15-30 minutes. This
    activity is moving into a corridor of backed low-level surface
    winds. Increasing rotation aloft has been noted in KARX data and
    this trend may continue with eastward extent over the next couple of
    hours. Latest VWP data from KARX continues to show an enlarged,
    favorably curved low-level hodograph with 0-1 SRH values now around
    250-300 m2/s2 as low-level flow has increased somewhat over the last
    couple of hours. As convection encounters this corridor of more
    favorable low-level shear within a strongly unstable environment, an
    increase in tornado potential as well as large hail is expected.

    ..Leitman.. 06/15/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5BNh_5-jFaBTGCweXsrw3Q6A9Qx-9AUf17FQUlO2oAY18EfXWXJcbRia0z03jtwO0jCBqDMfr= bNkBt-eUnaFZwSH0YA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

    LAT...LON 43989132 44389063 44618986 44588956 44368927 44078924
    43698946 43259013 43149069 43129127 43179140 43989132=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 20, 2023 20:43:42
    ACUS11 KWNS 202043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202043=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-202315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1177
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0343 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

    Areas affected...parts of eastern Texas and western Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 202043Z - 202315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated intense thunderstorm development is possible
    through 5-7 PM CDT. It remains unclear how long any storms that do
    develop will persist, but they may pose at least a short-lived risk
    for very large hail and strong downbursts. It does not currently
    appear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will
    continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Attempts at new thunderstorm development are ongoing near/east-southeast of Longview, TX. This may be supported by
    forcing for ascent within a focused area of weak low-level warm
    advection, in the wake of a subtle short wave impulse now digging
    across Louisiana coastal areas.

    Due to substantial lingering inhibition associated with warm and dry
    elevated mixed-layer air, it remains unclear if this convection will
    be sustained, particularly based on recent model output. However,
    seasonably moist boundary-layer inflow into the south-southeastward
    propagating convection appears characterized by very large CAPE.=20
    And deep-layer shear beneath moderate northwesterly mid-level flow
    (on the order of 30 kt) may be marginally sufficient to support
    supercell structures.=20=20

    So, there appears at least some potential for isolated rapid
    thunderstorm development and intensification during the next few
    hours. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by a risk
    for very large hail and occasional strong downbursts as long as it
    it maintained.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!75BR9PNm5xDbxBo3BLpZVQBtoLSH3Ku8zZw5uNpByc0udqvOXvW1EqAaY3dMi60T-XKTfEGeX= pdZuBRCAH1dK7C5Cqk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32509427 32399408 31739327 30979343 30869387 31029428
    32179455 32529452 32509427=20


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