ACUS11 KWNS 151618
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151618=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-151745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Areas affected...far northeast IA/southeast MN into central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 151618Z - 151745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms tracking northeast into
west-central and central WI through early afternoon may pose a
threat for gusty winds and hail. Watch issuance is uncertain in the
short term.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of elevated thunderstorms is tracking
northeast around 40-45 kt across northeast IA/southeast MN late this
morning. This activity is occurring on the nose of a 25-30 kt
southwesterly low level jet and along the northern edge of an
instability gradient. The downstream airmass across WI is quickly
warming into the mid-80s amid upper 60s surface dewpoints and rapid destabilization is expected into the afternoon hours. The current
track of convection may remain to the cool side of the surface
boundary draped southwest to northeast across central WI. This may
limit overall severe potential to a marginal hail and locally gusty
wind threat. However, if convection can become surface based with
eastward extent, greater severe potential (including damaging gusts
and perhaps a tornado or two) could develop. Convective trends will
be monitored and a watch could become necessary if surface-based
evolution becomes evident.=20

Additional severe storms are expected later this afternoon and an
upgrade to a Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) will be included with the
1630z convective outlook.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/15/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-2FNSvqh5rdaLsaysc1B7McvmuJfw8XaMGHfONcB96SmQYFC27NtTp_1L5EomH2zG9GxMP13h= YvjZomoXO-CJyoB5nM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON 43269091 43219147 43129231 43149271 43269283 43509273
44289141 44819030 44988992 44948935 44828894 44528875
44078882 43708915 43419010 43269091=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 201854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201853=20
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-202030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeast Wyoming into extreme
southeast Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 201853Z - 202030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the
northern High Plains. Severe wind and hail are expected to be the
primary hazards with the stronger storms. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance may be needed to address the pending threat.

DISCUSSION...The combination of orographic lift, diurnal heating,
and deep-layer ascent from a mid-level trough approaching from the
west, are all contributing to an increase in anafrontal thunderstorm development. These storms are developing amid increasing mid-level
flow, with strengthening southwesterly flow above 700 mb
contributing to 50+ kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. With the
RIW VAD and RAP forecast soundings both depicting relatively
straight, elongated hodographs, transient supercells and short line
(possible bowing) segments are the expected storm modes. Though
overall buoyancy is modest, the presence of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse
rates suggests that large hail may accompany the stronger storm
cores. Downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft in
higher-terrain areas may also support severe gusts. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be needed pending greater storm
coverage, most likely once storms progress east and north of the Big
Horn Mountains.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-l-ovfe_uspLvu6u5o0DAOWlhrcyA29LfwC785s1ezswp9unVlYSjuA6qSO5-cCq7pYZZMz7k= 0bDO_PDV7KA9sl7bAA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 45060382 44230398 43350518 42800649 42610734 42710787
43420798 43570785 44790635 45380536 45540439 45060382=20


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