ACUS11 KWNS 150843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150842=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-151015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1174
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Areas affected...Eastern NE...Southwest/Central/Northeast IA...Far
Southeast MN...Far Southwest WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370...

Valid 150842Z - 151015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts will remain
possible for the next few hours. Anticipated coverage is expected to
be isolated, precluding downstream watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A few supercells continue to persist across
east-central NE and southwest IA, supported by warm-air advection
and moderate buoyancy. Buoyancy has weakened in the immediate
vicinity of these storms, as well as downstream into more of central
IA. Expectation is for these storms to gradually diminish in
coverage and intensity over the next few hours. Longevity and
organized character of these storms suggests some severe threat will
still exist for the next hour or two. However, the threat should
become isolated enough to preclude additional watch issuance.

Farther east, a transition to more of a linear structure has
occurred, with the storms now propagating more eastward on the
outflow. A gust of 50 kt was recently reported at MIW. Some isolated
damaging wind gusts may occur with this line as it moves eastward
over the next hour or so, but the downstream air mass is not overly
supportive of storm maintenance and the outflow is moving ahead of
the deeper convection. As such, the expectation is that the line
will gradually weaken, precluding the need for a downstream watch at
this time, but convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Hart.. 06/15/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8eQ1eVZpwxplv_EfRUtFI9kZP2ErGUAciumfmfA_cihtMDozq4YbEV2bwlvnN3-Cgts14n7u7= gS1fhK_GibNAiye8BA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 40789591 40629702 41659722 43959192 42609013 41499318
40789591=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 201445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201444=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-201715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1174
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...northwest through southeastern Louisiana and
adjacent portions of southwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 201444Z - 201715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing risk for
large hail and locally strong downbursts is possible through Noon-1
PM CDT. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a severe
weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently initiated in a narrow
corridor east- southeast of Shreveport, LA through the Gulfport, MS
vicinity. This appears roughly aligned with a baroclinic zone
around 850 mb, likely aided by forcing for ascent associated with
weak frontogenesis and/or warm advection. A subtle mid-level short
wave impulse has been apparent in recent water vapor loops, and is
now digging southeastward across the Ark-La-Tex region.=20=20

This initially elevated convective development probably is still
being forced through a relatively warm layer centered around 700 mb.
However, the continued southeastward progression of the mid-level
wave may erode this capping layer. Furthermore, latest Rapid
Refresh suggests that boundary-layer warming with insolation will
result in increasingly negligible inhibition in a narrow corridor
immediately south of ongoing convection through 16-18Z.=20=20

As this occurs, potential exists for rapidly intensifying
thunderstorm development, increasingly rooted in a boundary-layer
becoming characterized by large CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg.=20
Although deep-layer shear beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly mid-level
flow is modest, the environment still appears conducive to a risk
for large hail and locally damaging downbursts with strongest storms
into early afternoon.

..Kerr/Hart.. 06/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_QoPr2UNHrafxPNKLyqQ1LU8tML4aAdVXl2aNHyA4pWWkV65k7DtfZoFqvBW2UFWuHYpg9N63= DROYhqijWaVr6qgBzM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32209350 31969250 31549153 31209062 30908995 29658804
29258822 29379000 30339158 31219274 31769348 32209350=20


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