ACUS11 KWNS 150421
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150420=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-150615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Areas affected...Nebraska...Iowa Region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370...

Valid 150420Z - 150615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue from southern
Nebraska into north-central Iowa. Large hail should be noted with
the strongest storms, along with some threat for damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...LLJ is strengthening across western OK into northern KS
late this evening. This is strongly influencing the corridor of
scattered severe thunderstorms from southern NE, northeast into
north-central IA. Coincident, and likely contributing to this
activity is a notable frontal zone that extends from southwest NE
into northeast IA. Additionally, latest satellite data suggests
large-scale ascent ahead of the WY/CO trough is now spreading across
the central High Plains. Scattered convection is developing north of
the front across northeast CO into western NE. This forcing should
spread east tonight and aid the ongoing frontal convection where
seasonally strong buoyancy and steep lapse rates reside. Latest MRMS
data suggests numerous updrafts are likely producing large hail,
possibly around 2 inches at times, especially across Adams County NE
and recently over northern Lancaster County NE. This frontal
corridor should remain convectively active well into the early
morning hours given the LLJ and approaching trough.

..Darrow.. 06/15/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5BGdPGd6HCX3kXvOuEiE9Yfem-DrvG8oar3wk2OpNCjB-FBlo2Pqq6RlXPOVFCSPro7rAH87-= nvQ9w7GEpMCqM1GPyM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...GID...GLD...

LAT...LON 40799966 42649335 41499338 39639967 40799966=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 200629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200628=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-200830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...seastern Montana...far northwest North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342...343...

Valid 200628Z - 200830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342, 343
continues.

SUMMARY...A few storms may produce hail through watch expiration and
perhaps an hour or two beyond, from eastern Montana into far
northwest North Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Training cells persist over eastern MT, behind the
surface cold front and with modest elevated MUCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. The presence of sufficient deep-layer shear and lift behind
the front are aiding storm longevity currently. However, the
cool/stable air will continue to deepen as it slides east under the
existing storms, eroding instability. Given neutral heights
tendencies aloft and increasing CIN east of the front, this should
eventually shut off storm inflow, with a sudden end to the hail
threat. Until then, portions of the watch may be extended in time to
account for the near-term hail potential.

..Jewell.. 06/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!41kIQ-tzo89EoQS6uFgO_vNUrZSWbuNWhL-tdvxfndmHGvGav6xGTmfc86CO5fBSbu1iCHMxY= OT8BfEAKkUEOY_qMHU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 46500686 48280463 48640407 48700375 48640345 48400339
48080354 46550536 46050599 45970636 46190678 46500686=20


=3D =3D =3D
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