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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1168

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 22:33:36
    ACUS11 KWNS 142233
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142232=20
    MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-150100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1168
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0532 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of KS...southeast NE...far southwest IA...and
    far northwest MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 142232Z - 150100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for storm development and a
    severe risk this afternoon/evening. A watch could eventually be
    needed for parts of the area.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a deepening line
    of cumulus extending from southeast NE southwestward into central
    and south-central KS -- focused along a cold front draped over the
    area. Capping at the base of the EML has suppressed convective
    development thus far, though a modest increase in surface
    convergence and continued diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints
    should allow for isolated to widely scattered convective development
    during the next few hours -- especially over parts of central into
    northeast KS where cumulus is becoming increasingly agitated owing
    to stronger low-level convergence and decreasing MLCINH.=20

    While strong southwesterly midlevel flow atop southerly low-level
    flow is contributing to 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear oriented
    parallel to the surface cold front, the southerly flow in the
    850-700-mb layer could lead to anafrontal convection initially.
    However, if supercell structures become established along/near the
    surface boundary, convective elements should track
    east-northeastward toward the warm sector. Given steep midlevel
    lapse rates and an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph, large hail
    will be the primary concern initially. Eventually, damaging winds
    could become a growing concern with any surface-based supercell
    structures or convective clusters. Trends are being monitored, and a
    watch could eventually be needed for parts of the area.

    ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8RWNVzKOkFZM3ajVnKm3dp1xG4kF0222zzm0TR1p0RyMLBYrMcWt5ebiFdrDcI3sBnDOk1Rhp= 8353IPmCKEAzTDWC1I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40359818 40689753 40969689 41089594 40969559 40389537
    39549613 38089896 37939995 38330027 39000007 39769918
    40359818=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 19, 2023 21:59:35
    ACUS11 KWNS 192159
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192158=20
    TXZ000-200000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1168
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0458 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

    Areas affected...Central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 340...

    Valid 192158Z - 200000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 340
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue into this evening
    with large hail and wind damage possible across parts of central
    Texas. As the severe threat moves toward the edge of weather watch,
    new watch issuance will need to be considered.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from San
    Angelo shows a severe convective cluster over the Texas Hill
    Country. These storms are located near a thermal axis extending
    southeastward across central Texas, where surface temperatures are
    well above 100 F. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads are resulting
    in high-based storms with damaging outflow potential. The WSR-88D
    VWP at Fort Hood has a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear
    near 40 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5
    C/km, will also support a large hail threat. The severe threat will
    move toward the edge of weather watch 340 over the next hour, and
    could affect areas to the east of the watch later this evening. For
    this reason, a new watch could be needed across central Texas by
    00Z.

    ..Broyles.. 06/19/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7g3NtpPw8lRpfZ0c2DSIjFjaxSMaJ2FQIgyibuf3wACGCCg1tDth0s1YcGfpDqbc_FVfh6-t2= EprPpNGTMyOyExeRnQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31859793 32129830 32209880 31979921 31479951 30839983
    30400008 29939996 29679936 29689900 29889866 30749807
    31489781 31859793=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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