• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1167

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 19:53:34
    ACUS11 KWNS 141953
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141953=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-142130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1167
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0253 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

    Areas affected...portions of eastern AL...southern GA and northern
    FL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367...

    Valid 141953Z - 142130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts remain possible
    within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367. An isolated strong gust or two
    may also occur over portions of eastern AL and northern FL as
    convection spreads into these areas.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of loosely organized cells will continue to
    propagate southward across southern GA the next couple of hours, and
    may persist into northern FL amid a very unstable and moist airmass.
    A modest cold pool has developed in the wake of these storms, aiding
    in some organization of this activity. However, weak vertical shear
    and warm midlevel temperatures beneath the upper ridge are likely
    limiting more intense convection.=20

    Additional thunderstorm clusters are ongoing near the western
    GA/eastern AL state line vicinity. This activity recently produce a
    48 kt gust at KCSG in east-central GA. This activity will encounter
    similar strong instability but weak vertical shear as it shifts into
    eastern AL. This will ultimately limit organization, though high PW
    values and very steep low-level lapse rates could support sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts through the remainder of the
    afternoon. At this time, new watch issuance is not expected across
    AL or northern FL.

    ..Leitman.. 06/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5d43MVqzEJxRdbeX7HhTl9gz84Bd3_u9Ii3SLPW51Xfn5l0HhYLcvW1Ep-DqHcaGifwWpg_CC= uhuGa6-Qrtcx7tYJQY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

    LAT...LON 33308507 33038484 32558458 32178407 31678296 31578228
    31458152 31358133 31168117 30858119 30698130 30308171
    30178241 30218358 30548454 31018538 31568578 31978599
    32548608 32908607 33168585 33338541 33308507=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 19, 2023 20:52:32
    ACUS11 KWNS 192052
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192051=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-192315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1167
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0351 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southeast Montana into far northeast
    Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 192051Z - 192315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the
    northern High Plains. Severe winds and hail are the greatest threats
    with any of the stronger storms that develop. An organized
    convective cluster may ultimately materialize and a WW issuance may
    become necessary at some point this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Several hours of clearing skies have supported surface temperatures to warm into the upper 70s F amid upper 40s to 50s F
    dewpoints, resulting in 2000+ J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE given the presence
    of 7-8 C/km low- and mid-level lapse rates. Cumulus are increasing
    in depth and coverage across northeast WY, likely driven by the
    strong surface heating. However, the approach of the mid-level
    trough will result in increasing deep-layer ascent and stronger flow
    aloft, which will also support 60+ kts of effective bulk
    shear/elongated hodographs. As storms develop, cellular modes are
    possible, with a mix of severe hail/gusts the hazards of concern.
    However, as potential upscale growth of an MCS occurs later this
    afternoon or early evening, severe winds will become the prevalent
    threat.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/19/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5NzyjLfzy9Hi_8z6snweumHDe5wl_jgaIejBUbAoDFSo5iQSdhVTzSTjypdVhBS9tfN-iAOol= rOZyOUe2bq1nCVWq0U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

    LAT...LON 44830940 46360734 47190573 47520432 46950344 46150319
    45340368 44920436 44680518 44470625 44090753 44130847
    44830940=20


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