ACUS11 KWNS 141521
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141521=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-141615-
Mesoscale Discussion 1164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Areas affected...portions of east-central GA into central/southern=20
SC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 141521Z - 141615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts are possible into early
afternoon across portions of central/southern SC and eastern GA.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are developing late this
morning in a very moist and unstable environment in the vicinity of
an outflow boundary from overnight convection. Regional 12z RAOBs
and forecast soundings, in addition to recent mesoanalysis data,
indicate some inhibition is still likely impacting the MCD area, but
with continued heating this should erode over the next 1-2 hours.
Surface dewpoints are generally in the 73-77 F range, supporting a
corridor of strong MLCAPE with southward extent despite modest
midlevel lapse rates. This strong instability will support initially
robust thunderstorm updrafts. However, the region will remain under
very weak vertical shear on the eastern periphery of the 500 mb
ridge axis/upper anticyclone. This will ultimately limit longevity
of intense updrafts and organized cells. However, if a strong enough
cold pool can be generated, some forward propagation and
organization of thunderstorm clusters could occur, with an attendant
increase for locally damaging gusts. While a watch is not expected
in the short-term, convective trends will be monitored.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/14/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6kn0ek6Nc6q94kDF_al4ww_8WVC5IMEarrVEZjv_UPVOK_5LAXFMhMJPU8SdX0L3q3VuWlnO-= WvX3cApRxAipj-rGcU$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON 33858016 33298009 32938025 32638065 32428125 32358190
32348256 32508322 32838362 33228376 33598357 33808334
34008310 34098298 34208261 34318135 34318071 34198032
33858016=20
=3D =3D =3D
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