• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1164

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 15:21:35
    ACUS11 KWNS 141521
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141521=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-141615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1164
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1021 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

    Areas affected...portions of east-central GA into central/southern=20
    SC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 141521Z - 141615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts are possible into early
    afternoon across portions of central/southern SC and eastern GA.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are developing late this
    morning in a very moist and unstable environment in the vicinity of
    an outflow boundary from overnight convection. Regional 12z RAOBs
    and forecast soundings, in addition to recent mesoanalysis data,
    indicate some inhibition is still likely impacting the MCD area, but
    with continued heating this should erode over the next 1-2 hours.
    Surface dewpoints are generally in the 73-77 F range, supporting a
    corridor of strong MLCAPE with southward extent despite modest
    midlevel lapse rates. This strong instability will support initially
    robust thunderstorm updrafts. However, the region will remain under
    very weak vertical shear on the eastern periphery of the 500 mb
    ridge axis/upper anticyclone. This will ultimately limit longevity
    of intense updrafts and organized cells. However, if a strong enough
    cold pool can be generated, some forward propagation and
    organization of thunderstorm clusters could occur, with an attendant
    increase for locally damaging gusts. While a watch is not expected
    in the short-term, convective trends will be monitored.

    ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6kn0ek6Nc6q94kDF_al4ww_8WVC5IMEarrVEZjv_UPVOK_5LAXFMhMJPU8SdX0L3q3VuWlnO-= WvX3cApRxAipj-rGcU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

    LAT...LON 33858016 33298009 32938025 32638065 32428125 32358190
    32348256 32508322 32838362 33228376 33598357 33808334
    34008310 34098298 34208261 34318135 34318071 34198032
    33858016=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 19, 2023 14:36:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 191436
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191436=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-191630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1164
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0936 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

    Areas affected...parts of northeastern Florida and southeastern
    Georgia

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339...

    Valid 191436Z - 191630Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A weakening cluster of thunderstorms could briefly
    intensify again and pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts
    while spreading into and through southeastern Georgia coastal areas
    and northern Florida through Noon-1 PM EDT.

    DISCUSSION...Based on diminishing lightning flash rates, recent
    cloud top warming and radar presentation, the southeastward
    advancing convective system has been in the process of decaying.=20
    Observed peak gusts at several ASOS sites (Quincy, FL/Thomasville
    and Moultri, GA) have been around 30 kt with the passage of the
    convective outflow, as convection has been traversing boundary-layer
    air likely stabilized by prior convection.

    VWP data does indicate 50 kt rear inflow as low as 1 KM AGL, and the
    leading line has been forward propagating around 40 kt, likely
    maintaining strong southeasterly near-surface inflow into updrafts.=20
    So, some brief intensification might still be possible as the gust
    front encounters a more moist and potentially unstable boundary
    layer across the Ocala, Gainesville and Jacksonville areas through
    16-17Z.

    ..Kerr.. 06/19/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6phf_kiWhuj01QYdgFEm4g7tx2Pmd_VPEHdH6o41ZjuIgA9kx87t6ZnHt9luAzvAKbhApZMkV= HCBAyXtIFsLVi8RWo8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30408391 30388329 31378248 31728209 31288117 30108162
    29498229 29598364 29698411 30408391=20


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