• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1163

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 12:45:03
    ACUS11 KWNS 141244
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141244=20
    VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-141445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1163
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0744 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

    Areas affected...Southeast OH...Southwest PA...Northern WV...Far
    western MD...Far northwest VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 141244Z - 141445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms capable of isolated hail and strong wind
    gusts are possible this morning.

    DISCUSSION...A strong elevated thunderstorm has recently developed
    across southeast OH, with convection also increasing into parts of
    northern WV. These storms are developing along an instability
    gradient that is expected to move slowly eastward with time, as
    continued low-level moisture advection occurs underneath the leading
    edge of a steep midlevel lapse rate plume. Moderate MUCAPE and
    favorable deep-layer shear will support an isolated hail risk with
    the strongest storms, and any eventual storm clustering could result
    in isolated strong wind gusts. At this time, the short-term severe
    threat appears too limited for watch issuance.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 06/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4kBVoQtGWfca6nHzS5o9AAnplBcgTY7jU2VkQSriXNhDMGjihGWkAhbZN5fYOjuBCDWPKADZT= KShp7PjTDwfdamx0yA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 40028124 40298036 40378009 39567928 38887902 38477901
    38187928 38258015 38618057 39138105 39558128 40028124=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 19, 2023 12:05:32
    ACUS11 KWNS 191205
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191205=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-191400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1163
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0705 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

    Areas affected...southeast Mississippi...far southwest Alabama

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 338...

    Valid 191205Z - 191400Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 338 continues.

    SUMMARY...A small area of supercell potential currently exists from
    southern Mississippi into a small part of southwest Alabama. A brief
    tornado is possible.

    DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary currently extends westward out of
    southern AL and into far southeast MS, where it has likely stalled.
    Meanwhile, a very moist and unstable air mass remains to the west,
    with upper 70s F dewpoints minimizing CIN.

    Westerly flow in the boundary layer has maintained theta-e advection
    into this area where low-level convergence is concentrated. A
    supercell currently exists in Jones County, MS, and other storms
    were beginning to form farther south.

    SRH is concentrated mostly in the lowest 1 km, with values of 150 to
    200 m2/s2 common, especially near the outflow boundary. It is
    possible that any storms interacting with this favorable shear zone
    could produce a brief tornado. As such, the tornado watch has been
    expanded south to account for the motion of the aforementioned cells
    and new development.

    ..Jewell.. 06/19/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!55fAfAguOC4CrgzvWT4CBqUNmWxAGfVZKiuPfPK1mbePkE3K3cdCzgJr_ETKOKfn4k1ONG3mb= AYRcvbKyg0Bz0wdKwc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 31668935 31678899 31498857 31308811 31208804 30948803
    30658823 30618846 30788919 31438945 31538950 31668935=20


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