ACUS11 KWNS 140653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140652=20
SDZ000-140815-
Mesoscale Discussion 1159
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Areas affected...Central/northern SD
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363...
Valid 140652Z - 140815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363
continues.
SUMMARY...Wind gusts greater than 75 mph and very large hail will
remain possible with an intense thunderstorm cluster overnight.
DISCUSSION...Intense thunderstorms are ongoing at 0645Z across parts
of central SD, with recent reports of very large hail (greater than
2 inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts. These storms have
developed on the cool side of a cold front, in advance of a strong
upper trough moving toward the northern High Plains and a surface
low moving north-northeastward across northwest NE.=20
Despite the post-frontal nature of these storms, rich low-level
moisture just above the surface and steep midlevel lapse rates are
supporting very strong to extreme buoyancy, with MUCAPE of greater
than 4000 J/kg noted per recent mesoanalyses. Meanwhile, deep-layer
shear will remain supportive of organized convection overnight, as
strong southwesterly midlevel flow continues to overspread the
region.=20
Given the magnitude of instability, very large hail and localized
significant wind gusts will continue to be a threat with any
supercells than can remain semi-discrete overnight. Evolution into a forward-propagating cluster is possible as storms consolidate with
time, and a swath of more widespread intense damaging wind gusts
will be possible should organized upscale growth occur.
..Dean.. 06/14/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6xdhZu9VXTRHEAkDQNmLqUCjcO6ySmL01gUVZEfQFSS45wOe8tsZthcZNgezi5mEvnuPR9Slu= Vkww4YbY4zJiAQ43rU$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...
LAT...LON 44610163 45820049 45879953 45739885 45149897 44499929
43949973 43590026 43560074 43860103 44080128 44240134
44610163=20
=3D =3D =3D
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