• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1159

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 06:53:46
    ACUS11 KWNS 140653
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140652=20
    SDZ000-140815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1159
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0152 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

    Areas affected...Central/northern SD

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363...

    Valid 140652Z - 140815Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Wind gusts greater than 75 mph and very large hail will
    remain possible with an intense thunderstorm cluster overnight.

    DISCUSSION...Intense thunderstorms are ongoing at 0645Z across parts
    of central SD, with recent reports of very large hail (greater than
    2 inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts. These storms have
    developed on the cool side of a cold front, in advance of a strong
    upper trough moving toward the northern High Plains and a surface
    low moving north-northeastward across northwest NE.=20

    Despite the post-frontal nature of these storms, rich low-level
    moisture just above the surface and steep midlevel lapse rates are
    supporting very strong to extreme buoyancy, with MUCAPE of greater
    than 4000 J/kg noted per recent mesoanalyses. Meanwhile, deep-layer
    shear will remain supportive of organized convection overnight, as
    strong southwesterly midlevel flow continues to overspread the
    region.=20

    Given the magnitude of instability, very large hail and localized
    significant wind gusts will continue to be a threat with any
    supercells than can remain semi-discrete overnight. Evolution into a forward-propagating cluster is possible as storms consolidate with
    time, and a swath of more widespread intense damaging wind gusts
    will be possible should organized upscale growth occur.

    ..Dean.. 06/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6xdhZu9VXTRHEAkDQNmLqUCjcO6ySmL01gUVZEfQFSS45wOe8tsZthcZNgezi5mEvnuPR9Slu= Vkww4YbY4zJiAQ43rU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44610163 45820049 45879953 45739885 45149897 44499929
    43949973 43590026 43560074 43860103 44080128 44240134
    44610163=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 19, 2023 01:36:53
    ACUS11 KWNS 190136
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190136=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-190300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1159
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0836 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 335...

    Valid 190136Z - 190300Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 335 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat across tornado watch 335 in eastern
    Mississippi will continue over the next few hours. Tornadoes, large
    hail and wind damage will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Jackson, Mississippi
    shows a cluster of strong to severe storms, with a couple embedded
    supercells in south-central Mississippi. Other strong to severe
    storms are ongoing in north-central Mississippi. The RAP is
    analyzing a low to mid-level jet over central and northern
    Mississippi. As this feature moves eastward and strengthens over the
    next couple of hours, the strong low-level shear environment will be maintained. This should result in an increasing tornado threat with
    maturing supercells that are currently ongoing. With 0-3 km storm
    relative helicity near 400 m2/s2, evident on the Jackson,
    Mississippi 00Z sounding, the storms may be able to produce a strong
    tornado over the next 60 to 90 minutes across eastern Mississippi.
    The large hail and wind damage threat will also continue with the
    stronger cells.

    ..Broyles.. 06/19/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_vxyYHwfhe8IQD5ukoRSacZdQsxgZ8k7NZApuXTfxzqYLKKYCsbHPzFnt0IELEBYjQUVmIqh_= jGwwL2H0rE_faU4NCk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33258825 33838830 34108856 34158897 34078932 33778957
    32348983 31938920 32108848 33258825=20


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