• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1157

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 03:42:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 140342
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140342=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-140545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1157
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1042 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of OH...southwest PA...northern WV...and far
    western MD

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...361...

    Valid 140342Z - 140545Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356, 361
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts remain the primary concern across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 356 and 361.

    DISCUSSION...A mature convective line across parts of northern Ohio
    will continue tracking east-southeastward at around 50 kt into the
    overnight hours, while an additional convective cluster farther west
    over northwest Ohio continues southeastward at around 35 kt. Farther
    south, a large cold pool is evident over parts of WV in the wake of
    a now decaying MCS moving into far western VA. North of the cold
    pool, a narrow corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s
    dewpoints) and surface-based instability remains in place. Given
    that inflow will likely be rooted at or near the surface along this
    corridor, effective bulk shear near 30-40 kt perpendicular to the
    convective line could support its maintenance toward the southeast.
    Trends will continue to be monitored, and a new watch could
    eventually be needed downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361.

    ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5WqddyE-K1Aec42j_-OLLqdPQjQ0AFFL7gQ9dTfU8dugeyUVCpeZCkIqUX0a4ADHVG75xntHL= Gzp2ACfVmohYH6Y7gI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

    LAT...LON 40988457 40778310 41338237 41468182 40577960 40127927
    39577923 39127950 39038004 39098087 39278153 39978397
    40698495 40988457=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 18, 2023 22:31:56
    ACUS11 KWNS 182231
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182231=20
    MSZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1157
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0531 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas...Far Southwest
    Tennessee...Northwest and North-central Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 182231Z - 190030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to gradually increase across northeastern Arkansas and may impact areas further south across
    eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi, especially as convective
    initiation becomes more likely. Weather watch issuance will be
    likely over the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
    trough over the Ozarks. At the surface, a moist airmass is located
    across much of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. The RAP has
    moderate instability across southeastern Arkansas and north-central
    Mississippi with weaker instability further north into northeast
    Arkansas and western Tennessee. A severe threat has recently
    developed in far northeast Arkansas, near a mid-level vorticity max
    associated with the upper-level trough. The severe threat will
    likely continue as storms gradually intensify southward across
    northeast Arkansas. As the vorticity max moves east-southeastward,
    additional convective initiation is expected from east-central
    Arkansas eastward across northwest Mississippi. The moderate
    instability, strong deep-layer shear and strengthening low-level
    shear will make supercell development possible later this evening.
    Large hail and wind damage will initially be possible, but an
    tornado threat may also eventually develop especially across
    northern Mississippi.

    ..Broyles/Grams.. 06/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-sRXMC7iSGyC1GXJt65dVPl6airKwZjsW7qYD4vU90xBZgGPG8JQQt-EHt14O9yuxdm8pV6dn= PTijRDuH8a0fqtbdCk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

    LAT...LON 33558956 33399068 33429124 33569188 33859205 34559186
    35879103 36209021 36028953 35638907 35258878 34618874
    33978904 33558956=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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