• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1156

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 02:56:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 140256
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140256=20
    SDZ000-140500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1156
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0956 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

    Areas affected...Western SD

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360...

    Valid 140256Z - 140500Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated wind/hail threat will slowly shift east over the
    next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered high-based convection that developed over
    southeast WY has lifted north-northeast across western SD where
    low-level warm advection and buoyancy are a bit greater than across
    the higher Plains. 00z sounding from RAP was modestly unstable but
    notably capped around 1km AGL. This activity has been slow to shift
    east, possibly due to the CINH. However, heights will continue to
    fall across the northern High Plains tonight and this should nudge
    this corridor of convection northeast over the next few hours,
    possibly back into southern portions of ww358. Wind/hail remain
    possible with this activity.

    ..Darrow.. 06/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8gJHvu11wJmrYPIsZSmyUoHsoPqddg95K6iUKeAc7u1nKIFc7wItCKQdQ-ygI-NpWqNHZ62UT= j-v0py1LsnEpybZfKY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43240396 45840272 45570165 43370270 43240396=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 18, 2023 22:26:54
    ACUS11 KWNS 182226
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182226=20
    TXZ000-190030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1156
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0526 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central TX through the Edwards Plateau

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 182226Z - 190030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
    across portions of central TX and the Edwards Plateau later this
    afternoon and evening. WW issuance is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Convection initiation attempts are underway along a quasi-stationary front draped from northeast TX southwestward
    through the Edwards Plateau. The deepest Cu thus far reside in an
    environment characterized by triple-digit surface temperatures and
    dewpoints in the 60s. Associated cloud bases are around 3 km AGL
    with around 3500-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE. RAP analyses suggest rather
    straight shear profiles throughout the troposphere with over 40 kts
    of 0-6-km shear. These conditions are not expected to change much
    for the rest of the day as the front remains mostly stationary
    through the region and primarily zonal mid-level flow shifts
    eastward. Recent high-resolution guidance in this region is mixed;
    some CAMs depicting successful initiation and maturation for a few
    hours thereafter, and others show no initiation. Successful
    initiation will likely depend on the width of developing updrafts
    and their resistance to relatively dry air near the top of the
    boundary layer. Current satellite trends suggest that successful
    initiation and subsequent maturation is possible, with the main
    conditional threats being large hail and damaging wind gusts lasting
    for a couple of hours. Trends will continue to be monitored for
    possible WW issuance, although it appears unlikely at this time
    given uncertainties regarding initiation and subsequent coverage.

    ..Flournoy/Grams.. 06/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5QFYsFQgeQmt_ISGfAjn5UnaERS4CV5iZpn40p5TSFyW6URZaA6CEQojBUeabRWxSjMrrM99T= N2-hJnMAvF-5J4k10o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 29899803 29469911 29319994 29540051 29940070 30260051
    30839985 31039956 31499873 31699817 31529765 31049737
    30449749 29899803=20


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