• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1149

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 13, 2022 22:56:02
    ACUS11 KWNS 132255
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132255=20
    WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-140030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1149
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0555 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

    Areas affected...southern OH...northeast KY...and parts of WV

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354...

    Valid 132255Z - 140030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An MCS with the risk of damaging gusts will continue
    spreading east-southeastward across portions of southern Ohio this
    evening. The risk should eventually extend farther east into
    portions of northeast KY and parts of WV, and a new downstream watch
    will likely be issued by 2330Z.

    DISCUSSION...The north/south-oriented segment of an MCS is advancing east-southeastward at around 40 kt, possibly glancing the southern
    portion of the Columbus OH metro. Diurnal heating of a very moist
    boundary layer (lower/middle 70s dewpoints) downstream should
    continue to support the maintenance of the MCS, while 30-40 kt of
    0-6 km bulk shear oriented perpendicular to the leading-edge gust
    front should favor continued organization. While deep-layer
    flow/shear weakens with southeastward extent, the feed of high
    theta-e air could continue to support deep/sustained updrafts and a
    risk of damaging winds. A new downstream watch will likely be issued
    by 2330Z for parts of the area.

    ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/13/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4CZ_gKumnoXjqdc4t_sn59i3YQ0UeSfHRltvxxV9gAsOg2YDrCWksfVdpQJuTWHjYdG1XKbBz= KU18Ji_p50txKTw7nY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

    LAT...LON 39108431 39508400 39848392 40088345 40028227 39608101
    39158033 38238026 37558077 37328144 37578225 38348420
    38798454 39108431=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 18, 2023 14:55:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 181455
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181455=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-181700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1149
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0955 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

    Areas affected...Northern LA into parts of central/southern MS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332...

    Valid 181455Z - 181700Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 332
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and localized damaging gusts may
    persist through the morning, though severe coverage may remain
    rather isolated.

    DISCUSSION...At 1445 UTC, one thunderstorm cluster is moving across
    central MS, with another noted over northern LA. Intensity trends
    have generally been downward over the last 1-2 hours, as storms move
    north of a composite outflow boundary, and encounter a somewhat less
    favorable environment in the wake of earlier convection. One
    exception has been the southwestward-most storm near Shreveport,
    which is in closer proximity to stronger elevated buoyancy, and this
    cell may continue to pose a threat of large hail in the short term.=20

    With steep midlevel lapse rates (noted on regional 12Z soundings)
    persisting across the region, some convection will likely persist
    through the morning, with the stronger elevated storms capable of
    hail and locally damaging gusts. However, advection of rather dry
    air immediately above the surface (as noted in the 12Z LCH and CRP
    soundings) may tend to suppress storm coverage near/south of the
    outflow this morning, before more substantial airmass recovery
    commences sometime this afternoon.=20

    WW 332 may be locally extended to cover the lingering threat into
    east-central MS, but elsewhere, new watch issuance is considered
    unlikely in the short term.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 06/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-j-UcSNZLCogvnA8LQrVXQ7Xo2XlnlYdSycz9AXOOEeVPKIpnCchuM0Lje6qP3Sa8bPJGQTWV= _STEiOXTfbhAvDVcCo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32709403 33009248 32809151 32289092 32389021 32858947
    32868893 32338853 32138869 32108918 32068946 31978993
    31849086 31689183 31519270 31549323 31779362 32319390
    32709403=20


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