ACUS11 KWNS 132238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132238=20
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-140045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Areas affected...Northeast Illinois...southeast Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 132238Z - 140045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing in a very unstable and highly
sheared environment. A tornado watch will likely be needed to
address this concern.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along a warm frontal
boundary across northern IL within the past hour. The downstream
environment remains highly unstable per latest RAP mesoanalysis
(4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE), and VWP observations from KLOT show around
200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. These observations support latest 6+ STP
estimates that were recently analyzed in recent data. While the
propensity for discrete convection is unclear due to storm motions
along the surface boundary and several updrafts in close proximity,
the environment is supportive of a tornado threat. A tornado watch
is likely in the next hour to address this concern.

..Moore/Thompson.. 06/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6KIwS7i3XTARD9RonI1VtJkKgnomYTnCBOjDbNznIdVe4Pps8BFnO0qtYBeJCaIFbRd9Jayfz= X5taGtlbbT-QO-zjAk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 42528994 42798931 42668825 42408768 41878732 41548721
40958745 40738802 40858876 41458912 42048979 42528994=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 181209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181208=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-181345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Areas affected...the Arklatex area

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181208Z - 181345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An area of elevated storms may produce isolated severe
hail or locally strong gusts as it moves across the Arklatex.

DISCUSSION...West/southwest winds around 30 kt at 850 mb are helping
to maintain an feed of unstable air out of northern TX into the
Arklatex area. The storms currently appear elevated atop the old
outflow, which may reduce wind gusts potential in the short term.
However, strong surface-based instability is not too far south of
this developing complex, and some increase in severe potential could
occur later this morning over parts of eastern TX into northwest LA.
As such, trends will need to be monitored closely for any further
organization, including further backbuilding toward the warmer
surface instability, and/or increasing hail cores well beyond 1.00"
diameter.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 06/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8oxP8tDZDY4iKK-sseL_Fcqeop37uwfwElSPb259E6XL4V5sg_akfZGUt3REdXsfqDh_dXFcv= 5rALXSwYpVJVO9rRMg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 33009575 33579494 33899419 33969385 33869355 33679336
33379328 32969332 32509343 32299374 32279424 32399471
32499525 33009575=20


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