ACUS11 KWNS 132150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132149=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-132345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southern Lower Michigan...northern
Indiana...and northwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 132149Z - 132345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase across parts of the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening. Damaging gusts will be
the main concern, and a watch will likely be needed for parts of the
area.

DISCUSSION...As a large cluster of storms with a history of large
hail and damaging winds continues tracking east-southeastward over
southern Lake Michigan toward Lower Michigan, lower 70s dewpoints
and filtered diurnal heating downstream should continue to
destabilize surface-based inflow for this convective cluster. At the
same time, the GRR VWP shows 60-70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear, which
should further aid in convective organization with
east-southeastward extent. While convective evolution remains
somewhat unclear owing to generally weak large-scale ascent, the
downstream environment could support significant gusts if efficient
upscale growth can aid in forward propagation and established
rear-inflow jets. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued
shortly for parts of the area.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6L6ByvtDqVdQzHa-qoAV33ewzkz8LJXw1fJU6fEp-5exdAz0nzsVp8FLto5UD3S_1uAzJfveK= 72Y87P9QVFCB0SHne0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON 41218621 41528688 42198746 42598740 43148698 43228645
43098569 42778474 42448408 42198372 41588350 41108370
40808424 41218621=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 181134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181133=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-181330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Areas affected...much of western into northwestern
Alabama...southern Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181133Z - 181330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts will be possible as a broken line
of storms moves eastward into the area, but a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Numerous storms persist this morning over much of MS
and extending northward into western TN, with much of the activity
associated with a long-lived area of outflow. Instability remains
strongest over MS, but a moderately unstable air mass does exist
into western/southwestern AL where surface temperatures are warmer.

The primary risk with these storms will be strong to locally
damaging gusts, owing to the continuous storm regeneration along the
leading outflow. Given the moderate instability and moist air mass,
the larger clusters of storms may produce localized wind damage. The
hail threat should remain low with most of these storms owing to the multicellular storm mode. Given the isolated nature of the expected
severe gusts, a watch is not currently expected.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 06/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7vtfuf1qekInJcCULPwXTo5qmWQE7eL4jlo3BQjwsfoMdOKkRB1ioWxVAvIubEiXvfLG2fHVc= p2uB43c9xww8KeqA2U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 34508842 34878834 35128801 35238755 35188701 34738669
33838693 33158710 32938747 32768809 32768847 33348840
34508842=20


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