• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1143

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 13, 2022 17:30:30
    ACUS11 KWNS 131730
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131729=20
    KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-131930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1143
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

    Areas affected...East-Central IL...Central/Southern IN...Southwest OH...Northern KY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 131729Z - 131930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
    damaging wind gusts may develop over the next few hours. Potential
    exists for the development of a convective line capable of strong
    wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations across the Lower/Mid OH
    Valley sampled a very moist air mass, with dewpoints in the upper
    70s/low 80s. Surface temperatures across this region have reached
    the low 90s. These low-level thermodynamic conditions beneath steep
    mid-level lapse rates is contributing to extreme instability. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE over 5000 J/kg and recent RAP
    soundings show a surface-based LI of -13 to -14 deg C. Mesoanalysis
    also indicates convective inhibition has eroded across much of the
    region, despite very warm low to mid-level temperatures.

    An area of deeper cumulus has developed just northeast of the
    strongest buoyancy, in the open warm sector well southwest of the
    warm front. Mesoanalysis reveals this cumulus is within an area of
    modest moisture convergence likely resultant from a subtle wind
    shift. Lighting has also been noted within this region during the
    last half hour. Given the thermodynamic conditions, very strong updrafts/downdrafts are possible. Moderate vertical shear is also in
    place, suggesting storm organization is possible.=20

    Evolution of this development is still uncertain, owing to the weak
    large-scale forcing for ascent and warm low to mid-level
    temperatures. However, the overall pattern and presence of extreme
    buoyancy suggest the potential exists for the development of a
    well-organized convective line. Most likely corridor for progression
    of this line would be across central/southern IN and into southwest
    OH and adjacent northern KY.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/13/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8pp9sFh0iKVKs8n65tsm0e-73OwfrxJ0EXBNFrXolj9wf5IE7EccPMhr4xNlZud4sEBVpNwJT= U_3pOnyLDZaBBU98HI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

    LAT...LON 39588768 40368835 41008792 40968645 39798365 38708335
    38378535 39588768=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 18, 2023 03:15:44
    ACUS11 KWNS 180315
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180315=20
    ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1143
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1015 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Eastern Oklahoma...Southwest
    Missouri and Western Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329...

    Valid 180315Z - 180515Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat, associated with the MCS in northwest
    Oklahoma, will move eastward across north-central Oklahoma over the
    next few hours. Wind damage and large hail will be likely. Cells in
    southeast Oklahoma will also expand in coverage, containing a severe
    weather threat as well. The severe threat is expected to eventually
    affect western Arkansas.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Oklahoma
    City shows a well-developed linear MCS in northwest Oklahoma, moving
    eastward around 50 knots. The MCS is expected to track
    east-southeast along a gradient of instability into northeast
    Oklahoma over the next few hours. Another severe cluster is
    currently located in southern Oklahoma. These storms are expected to
    develop northeastward across the remainder of southeast Oklahoma
    over the next couple of hours. The two convective systems are
    forecast to continue moving toward western Arkansas and may converge
    late this evening into the early overnight period.=20

    Moderate instability, along with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots evident
    on the Fort Smith WSR-88D VWP, will support a continued severe
    threat with the stronger cells within the MCS. Damaging wind gusts
    will be likely along the leading edge of the large-scale bowing line
    segment with large hail also likely within the more intense parts of
    the line.

    ..Broyles.. 06/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5EXC2eBELHyoN-7-QUVl21mQz3DaniDDP8powN4_trV0CX39Eh3djbOvzuUikKSrEei1JevA7= aZKpaI0dDzEw409R0s$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33589465 33999347 35139301 36279309 37499374 38039552
    37929721 37449779 36909789 36049800 35159798 34469790
    34029767 33729692 33589465=20


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