ACUS11 KWNS 131730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131729=20
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-131930-
Mesoscale Discussion 1143
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022
Areas affected...East-Central IL...Central/Southern IN...Southwest OH...Northern KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 131729Z - 131930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts may develop over the next few hours. Potential
exists for the development of a convective line capable of strong
wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations across the Lower/Mid OH
Valley sampled a very moist air mass, with dewpoints in the upper
70s/low 80s. Surface temperatures across this region have reached
the low 90s. These low-level thermodynamic conditions beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates is contributing to extreme instability. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE over 5000 J/kg and recent RAP
soundings show a surface-based LI of -13 to -14 deg C. Mesoanalysis
also indicates convective inhibition has eroded across much of the
region, despite very warm low to mid-level temperatures.
An area of deeper cumulus has developed just northeast of the
strongest buoyancy, in the open warm sector well southwest of the
warm front. Mesoanalysis reveals this cumulus is within an area of
modest moisture convergence likely resultant from a subtle wind
shift. Lighting has also been noted within this region during the
last half hour. Given the thermodynamic conditions, very strong updrafts/downdrafts are possible. Moderate vertical shear is also in
place, suggesting storm organization is possible.=20
Evolution of this development is still uncertain, owing to the weak
large-scale forcing for ascent and warm low to mid-level
temperatures. However, the overall pattern and presence of extreme
buoyancy suggest the potential exists for the development of a
well-organized convective line. Most likely corridor for progression
of this line would be across central/southern IN and into southwest
OH and adjacent northern KY.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/13/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8pp9sFh0iKVKs8n65tsm0e-73OwfrxJ0EXBNFrXolj9wf5IE7EccPMhr4xNlZud4sEBVpNwJT= U_3pOnyLDZaBBU98HI$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 39588768 40368835 41008792 40968645 39798365 38708335
38378535 39588768=20
=3D =3D =3D
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