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ACUS11 KWNS 121439
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121439=20
NCZ000-121545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

Areas affected...eastern NC and the Outer Banks

Concerning...Tornado Watch 44...

Valid 121439Z - 121545Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 44 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and a tornado or two remain possible the
next 1-2 hours across eastern NC and the Outer Banks.

DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms will continue shifting
east/northeast across the eastern NC coastal plain and Outer Banks
over the next 1-2 hours. Recent radar data indicates a well
developed LEWP/QLCS near the surface cold front. Wilmington NC
recently reported a gust to 51 kt with this activity. Intense
low-level flow near 60 kt just a couple hundred feet off the ground,
and increasing with height, will continue to support severe gusts as
the line shifts eastward across a weakly unstable environment.
Low-level winds are mostly veered ahead of the line, resulting in
poor directional shear. However, stronger speed shear in the lowest
1-2 km could still provide support for some transient rotation in mesovortex-like structures along the line, and a brief spin-up could
occur. The line of convection should clear the coastal areas and
Outer Banks by around 16z.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o3w8wONiJxIPH_03j1HOX65nTUC_hVW8_Sk5egX8OPVUughD0Uy67eVRl34ERnj4Lk3u0tUT$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 35227759 36477609 36517576 36317519 35737489 35317508
34847535 34297635 33707754 33747815 34077851 34447841
35227759=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 150257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150256=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-150500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Far Southeast Oklahoma...Far Northeast
Texas...Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...

Valid 150256Z - 150500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue over the next few hours from
far northeast Texas northeastward into central Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a broken line of
strong to severe storms located across east-central Arkansas, with
scattered more discrete cells from western Arkansas southward into
the Ark-La-Tex. New convection appears likely to develop to the
south of the ongoing storms across south-central Arkansas late this
evening. In addition to moderate instability, 0-6 km shear in that
areas is estimated to be near 50 knots according to the RAP. This
will support continued severe storm development over the next couple
of hours. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with
supercells. A locally greater wind-damage threat will possible ahead
of short bowing line segments. In addition, low-level shear has
increased across the region due to a strengthening jet near 850 mb.
For this reason, a brief tornado still may occur.

..Broyles.. 03/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!83IC8SnNKMtJ6Z4SaVDOQmwDtZV19bdz_sOPIZJmh-dZqf7htM6IhIJFDhot1-TBlxSOWVpis= nxFL92ki_lPNVz-lZg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 34109560 34629522 34949432 35139326 35289229 35319168
35139144 34839146 34439168 33679206 33059291 33079454
33169530 33389560 33889566 34109560=20


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