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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1135

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 13, 2022 00:29:26
    ACUS11 KWNS 130029
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130028=20
    NEZ000-130200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1135
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0728 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of western into central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351...

    Valid 130028Z - 130200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk of damaging winds and large hail should increase
    across parts of western into central Nebraska during the next couple
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KLNX shows two convective
    clusters tracking east-northeastward across parts of western
    Nebraska, with some signs of increasing intensity/organization
    during the last 30 minutes. While somewhat dry boundary-layer
    conditions and related CINH are evident ahead of the ongoing
    convection (per the 00z LBF sounding), continued upscale growth amid
    35-45 kt of effective bulk shear oriented perpendicular to the
    expanding cold pools should favor deeper/sustained updrafts with
    time. The primary concerns will be damaging gusts and isolated large
    hail as this activity continues east/northeastward across Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 351.

    ..Weinman.. 06/13/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-s0P5LY7MkCFB5FJ2bqFda2muVMAr0DlLyme3oqq53YujwjVcZuDj4NdfuejI-pG-ML2L6lt7= QFGC_xwOkc3ak-xNFk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41640302 41980318 42250328 42730305 42960234 42950114
    42190093 41540131 41340211 41330270 41430303 41640302=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 17, 2023 22:53:41
    ACUS11 KWNS 172253
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172253=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-180100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1135
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0553 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

    Areas affected...portions of Alabama and Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 172253Z - 180100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is possible across
    portions of Alabama and Georgia for the next few hours. Sporadic
    wind gusts and small hail are possible, but the overall severe
    threat is expected to be relatively low.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorm development has occurred across
    portions of Alabama and Georgia, with the strongest storm having
    traversed Bibb County in the last hour or so. These storms are
    forming in a northwesterly flow regime and a broad baroclinic zone characterized by temperatures in the upper 80s F and dewpoints in
    the 60s F, increasing to near 70 F with southward extent. Sufficient upper-level flow amidst MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and negligible
    inhibition has supported a few stronger, more sustained storms in
    the area. The overall severe threat for these storms, and any that
    continue to develop, is rather low given weak bulk shear to the
    north of the mid-level jet. Some threat for severe hazards -- mainly
    isolated damaging wind gusts and hail -- exists along the southern
    periphery of the highlighted area (and into WW323), where any storms
    that develop/persist may interact with a more sheared and unstable
    airmass. However, ongoing convective trends suggest that the limited
    shear where updrafts are currently percolating is leading to quick
    outflow dominance and shorter storm lifetimes. As such, the overall
    severe threat in this area should remain relatively low for the next
    couple of hours and further diminish around sunset.

    ..Flournoy/Grams.. 06/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9sD6l6NWI1jwc72xV8CJuuw-UYFzBRcFsCFfgmzytvyL8_8PW0BsNNVPY1DFt7GpYF3vgeUAx= K21Y6cOkfFcpxCX9TQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

    LAT...LON 32258693 32528788 33038813 33548781 33908709 33998644
    33848525 33418367 32798288 32208266 31708259 31178269
    31008307 31208410 31768555 32258693=20


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