ACUS11 KWNS 122326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122325=20
SDZ000-WYZ000-130100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Areas affected...Parts of western SD and far northeastern WY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 350...

Valid 122325Z - 130100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 350 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue spreading eastward across
parts of Tornado Watch 350. Very large hail and damaging gusts are
the main concerns in the near-term, though the tornado risk could
gradually increase as well.

DISCUSSION...KUDX radar data shows an upscale-growing convective
cluster tracking east-southeastward along a surface frontal boundary
from northeastern WY into western SD. Along and south of the
boundary, dewpoints continue to increase into the upper 60s beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates -- contributing to moderate to strong instability.=20

Given that storm motions and deep-layer shear is oriented largely
parallel to the surface boundary, cold pools may continue to congeal
amid the favorable buoyancy/minimal CINH. This would primarily favor
damaging gusts and sporadic large to very large hail in the
near-term. However, increasing low/midlevel warm advection atop
strengthening easterly low-level flow will result in an expanding
low-level hodograph with time, potentially favoring supercellular
modes and an increasing tornado risk.

..Weinman.. 06/12/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8r8KbJDo4oEU_x4RysQqeIMS1AO1SdxJd_TAFMnHXS3Yoqf-lz_DfeHukITTDKQjQ2OagDiO_= STJfhuE2UrLieTbkbo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...

LAT...LON 43920373 44150431 44330464 44600448 44740400 44840376
44890328 44810268 44600240 44190235 43790257 43700308
43920373=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 172230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172229=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-180030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...and Northwest
Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 327...

Valid 172229Z - 180030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 327 continues.

SUMMARY...The wind-damage and tornado threats are expected to
continue, and will likely increase from the Oklahoma Panhandle and
northern Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma over the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is currently
ongoing across far eastern Colorado and the far western Oklahoma
Panhandle. A wind damage and tornado threat will likely continue
with this line as it accelerates eastward across the Oklahoma
Panhandle over the next couple of hours. Discrete cells are also
expected to continue developing further to the east from the eastern
Oklahoma Panhandle and northeastern Texas Panhandle into northwest
Oklahoma. Due to strong instability, moderate deep-layer shear and
steep mid-level lapse rates evident on RAP forecast soundings, these
storms should be supercellular with a threat for large hail.
Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
supercells. A tornado threat will also exist, especially with cells
that remain discrete in advance of the fast-moving linear MCS.

..Broyles.. 06/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6iMoiuy6N8-mjtVdEG12bXLJtsiQyzvw7XJwnxfSJqNjCJLdTCQn2CenjqryG6AFfwKekdKZw= NAu0sF3NDw_LVeLlWI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 36959859 36619797 36109798 35699850 35729961 36090158
36350208 36660213 36980176 37020087 36959859=20


=3D =3D =3D
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