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ACUS11 KWNS 121354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121353=20 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-121800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Pennsylvania...northern New
Jersey...eastern New York State...western New England

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 121353Z - 121800Z

SUMMARY...A corridor of heavy snow will develop north-northeastward
across the region through 11 AM-1 PM EST, including occasional
hourly rates up to 1-2 inches per hour.

DISCUSSION...As consolidating, amplified mid-level troughing
gradually pivots eastward across the lower Great Lakes and upper
Ohio Valley vicinity, the corridor of strongest lower/mid
tropospheric frontogenetic forcing is forecast to continue to
develop north-northeastward, inland of northern Mid Atlantic coastal
through western New England by 16-18Z. This appears likely to
include a period of lift becoming maximized within the 700-500 mb
layer, where saturating profiles within the dendritic growth layer
will become conducive to heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2 inches
per hour. Although lower levels are still above freezing across
parts of western New England, temperatures will cool in response to
low-level cold advection, as deepening elongated surface low
pressure migrates across the northern Mid Atlantic through southern
New England coastal areas.

..Kerr.. 03/12/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rJjhbH5oNKkiTd2kOzrk9gW7tqD2pX3Jp-3Uotljy8rQ4u5y8yf8FgPGPtXiH0DhZfBcAjMO$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
CTP...

LAT...LON 45167148 46216972 43887097 41877323 40607417 39807595
40967597 43077479 44487341 45167148=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 150158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150158=20
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-150300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Far southeastern Illinois into southern Indiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...44...47...

Valid 150158Z - 150300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43, 44, 47 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds will be the primary threat with an
organized line of storms moving into southern Indiana. A
line-embedded supercell will be capable of producing a tornado.

DISCUSSION...An organized line of convection with an embedded
supercell continues east into southern Indiana. This embedded
supercell has shown relatively strong low-level rotation and will be
the primary focus for tornado potential during the next hour.
Damaging winds will also be possible, particularly with the more
north-south oriented line. The KVWX VAD showed around 70 kts at
1-1.5 km AGL as the line passed. The eastward extent of the severe
threat is somewhat uncertain given the increasing CINH and
decreasing buoyancy. However, some destabilization is expected ahead
of this line and, with it being organized, it is probable it
persists for a few more hours.

..Wendt.. 03/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4l9VgE8oxTM0b1BuVK80WRmMQWoxFtwOwnahmmznnd5LfqPBzcLpQfChCHHRNcABThYJJBaG0= CZMvVXKxanJyDiSpZs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON 37998716 37978782 38058812 38508798 38848788 39098714
39188580 39218467 38968437 38428451 38068604 38028672
37998700 37998716=20


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