• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1127

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 12, 2022 12:09:25
    ACUS11 KWNS 121209
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121208=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-121445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1127
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0708 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

    Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Northeast Kansas...Western and
    Central Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 121208Z - 121445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and large hail threat may persist,
    and move southeastward across northeast Kansas over the next 2 to 3
    hours. Weather watch issuance will be conditional upon whether the
    storms can maintain intensity.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Hastings, shows a
    supercell in Thayer County, Nebraska. This storm is located along
    the northwestern edge of moderate instability. The axis of
    instability extends southeastward into western Missouri, where the
    RAP has MLCAPE as high as 4000 J/kg. The storm tops have recently
    cooled on IR satellite imagery, suggesting that organization has
    occurred. As this storm moves east-southeastward across northeast
    Kansas this morning, storm coverage and intensity could increase.
    However, there is uncertainty. If the storms do not trend upward,
    then weather watch issuance will not be necessary this morning.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/12/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!59wud_7kEovss0u9XjvaEJ4JVqK2k3FQkznUqaWdlXNED55ivKtmCjzT9I3ei-jsHZ_ujI8lk= XAFhNdL-qHprLoiNvQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 40549741 40079782 39429734 38839581 38019409 37689341
    37709300 38209247 38679245 39189291 40109462 40659665
    40549741=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 17, 2023 20:24:38
    ACUS11 KWNS 172024
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172023=20
    COZ000-172130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1127
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0323 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

    Areas affected...southeast Colorado

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 324...

    Valid 172023Z - 172130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 324
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts
    continues across the watch area, and the potential also exists for a
    tornado or two.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite at 2020z shows a nearly
    continuous line of strong/severe storms extending from near Limon,
    CO south to east of Raton, NM, where a 60 kt wind gust was recently
    measured. Embedded intense cores within the line will remain capable
    of producing large hail, while damaging winds will remain the
    primary severe hazard with the linear nature of the storms. An
    isolated storm has developed over extreme northeast NM in advance of
    the line, and the potential remains for additional isolated storm
    development across southeastern CO this afternoon. Supercells are=20
    likely given moderate MLCAPE and 45-50 kts of deep shear.

    ..Bunting.. 06/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-h8a9SN-VcW7-BJ21GiX_GSxRTE3jfGnkWMAT6JI3Vg_DYBuHYyJWJ0uwG-MTm7T2wKoh4kVP= TwsoqxA-Jk9Lt2OtRA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 37100231 37020421 37690456 38930447 39370436 39470409
    39440287 39390254 38940222 37710224 37100231=20


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