ACUS11 KWNS 120205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120204=20
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-120330-
Mesoscale Discussion 1122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0904 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Areas affected...Extreme southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 347...
Valid 120204Z - 120330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 347
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts and isolated hail will
continue this evening and potentially into late tonight.
DISCUSSION...At 02Z, two relatively long-lived supercells are
approaching northwest South Dakota. Sporadic severe wind/hail
reports have been received from these cells thus far. The
environment remains favorable for organized convection, with MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 60+ kt noted in the 00Z UNR
sounding. There has been some tendency for clustering over the last
hour, with additional convection developing northeast of the ongoing supercells. Further upscale growth into a small MCS remains possible
later tonight, as a south-southeasterly low-level jet gradually
increases with time. This could result in a somewhat more focused
area of severe wind potential into the late evening, though
increasing MLCINH may tend to mitigate this threat to some extent.=20
Additional development of primarily elevated storms is possible
behind the initial cluster, with favorable low-level moisture,
midlevel lapse rates, and deep-layer shear likely to be maintained
into late tonight. Any such redevelopment could pose a threat of
isolated hail and strong wind gusts as it spreads
east-southeastward.
..Dean.. 06/12/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Fqdd_ZHTpFruTOIF6CW7_0wQ54AdQLsP1SeycayB1pLiUNo2k_3L9uULMUQBuwaydcCmix0t= kPMknx1xUomFCK92pE$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 45860436 45820293 45760165 44990131 44330120 43770148
43980396 44440580 44760625 45270551 45860436=20
=3D =3D =3D
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