• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1122

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 12, 2022 02:05:20
    ACUS11 KWNS 120205
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120204=20
    SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-120330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1122
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0904 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

    Areas affected...Extreme southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 347...

    Valid 120204Z - 120330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 347
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts and isolated hail will
    continue this evening and potentially into late tonight.

    DISCUSSION...At 02Z, two relatively long-lived supercells are
    approaching northwest South Dakota. Sporadic severe wind/hail
    reports have been received from these cells thus far. The
    environment remains favorable for organized convection, with MLCAPE
    of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 60+ kt noted in the 00Z UNR
    sounding. There has been some tendency for clustering over the last
    hour, with additional convection developing northeast of the ongoing supercells. Further upscale growth into a small MCS remains possible
    later tonight, as a south-southeasterly low-level jet gradually
    increases with time. This could result in a somewhat more focused
    area of severe wind potential into the late evening, though
    increasing MLCINH may tend to mitigate this threat to some extent.=20

    Additional development of primarily elevated storms is possible
    behind the initial cluster, with favorable low-level moisture,
    midlevel lapse rates, and deep-layer shear likely to be maintained
    into late tonight. Any such redevelopment could pose a threat of
    isolated hail and strong wind gusts as it spreads
    east-southeastward.

    ..Dean.. 06/12/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Fqdd_ZHTpFruTOIF6CW7_0wQ54AdQLsP1SeycayB1pLiUNo2k_3L9uULMUQBuwaydcCmix0t= kPMknx1xUomFCK92pE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 45860436 45820293 45760165 44990131 44330120 43770148
    43980396 44440580 44760625 45270551 45860436=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 17, 2023 15:04:09
    ACUS11 KWNS 171504
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171503=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-171700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1122
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1003 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

    Areas affected...southern Mississippi...southeast
    Louisiana...southwest Alabama...western Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 171503Z - 171700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeast
    across the discussion area through early/mid afternoon. Supercells
    capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts will be the
    primary severe weather risks.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows increasing
    vertical development within a cumulus field in the vicinity of a
    nearly stationary front over southern MS at 1500z. Substantial
    diurnal heating of a very moist air mass will result in continued destabilization and negligible CINH, with MLCAPE in excess of 3500
    to 4000 J/kg by early afternoon. Northwesterly deep-layer shear of
    40-45 kts favors the development of supercell storm structures
    capable of large to isolated very large hail, and damaging gusts.=20
    Storm coverage should increase with time, and storm/boundary
    interactions may result in some potential for a tornado.

    Observational trends are being monitored and a watch is likely prior
    to 17z.

    ..Bunting/Hart.. 06/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4W29UDVbVJrSG3w3eC2CLVKmPdqzhDwJ7gyAklxA8sV_IG0DL3X16TKSlOTfPXKyV3F8r5-I4= rLMIjU0VVx59pplO50$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 31279053 31929055 32149008 32228956 32168875 32088783
    31488638 30698593 30278633 30128729 30188905 30729021
    31279053=20


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