• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0197

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, March 05, 2022 23:39:41
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    ACUS11 KWNS 052334
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052333=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-060130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0197
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0533 PM CST Sat Mar 05 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of central and southeastern iowa

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 27...

    Valid 052333Z - 060130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 27 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat will be focused in parts of central and
    southeast Iowa this evening. This threat may extend beyond the WW 27
    and an additional downstream tornado watch will likely be considered
    this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A strong supercell continues to move through southern
    suburbs of Des Moines. This storm has had consistent rotational
    velocities in the 55-70 kt range over the past hour. Other discrete
    storms are moving out of north-central Missouri into south-central
    Iowa. At least one tornado was reported in Wayne County, IA, with
    this activity. These storms are moving into a similar environment
    and will continue to pose a threat for tornadoes over the next 1-2
    hours. To the west of these discrete storms, a more broken line of
    convection has developed along the cold front. This activity will
    pose greater threats for large hail and damaging winds than
    tornadoes.

    Farther to the north and east, earlier cloud cover and precipitation
    has limited destabilization. For parts of eastern Iowa and perhaps
    far northeastern Missouri, an additional downstream tornado watch
    will need to be considered this evening.

    ..Wendt.. 03/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vDfE6RlCGBqYTMRQZ6q6lnK0SbT5FH5vC6OQeprbFi8SQbBE9ojMQIGU06Kf7CUSkqDJ9wV-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 41069455 41589414 42089376 42339301 42429227 42389104
    41759089 40819131 40519142 40239171 40199232 40319338
    40429393 40479428 40549463 41069455=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, February 27, 2023 03:00:44
    ACUS11 KWNS 270300
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270300=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-270430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0197
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0900 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

    Areas affected...portions of south-central and southeastern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...

    Valid 270300Z - 270430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Risk for strong/damaging winds and a brief tornado will
    continue across portions of south-central and into southeastern
    Kansas over the next 1 to 2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a complex band of convection
    moving eastward across south-central Kansas west of Wichita, while a
    second band of storms is developing about 50 miles farther east.=20
    One rotating storm near the Kansas/Oklahoma border has weakened, but additional/transient low-level circulations will likely continue.

    Given the very strong background wind field, damaging gusts can be
    expected locally. However, some stabilization has occurred within
    the boundary layer, which should limit coverage and magnitude of the
    risk going forward. Still, local gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range
    will remain possible, along with a brief tornado.

    ..Goss.. 02/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-tIVXP_lwfpRF04Vxfbl_-Es_lYJd8tpHLaGloSAeL3q3zS76jAyIkcH65R9uyoGM7TxvjYJ6= sysh-o3Rgm4L18-jxw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 37079824 37829824 38469797 38599723 38759578 37919586
    36989696 36999788 37079824=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, March 07, 2024 19:28:12
    ACUS11 KWNS 071928
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071927=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-072200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0197
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0127 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

    Areas affected...North central Oklahoma to southeast Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 071927Z - 072200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected across north-central
    Oklahoma and southeast Kansas in the coming hours. These storms will
    likely pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds, and perhaps
    a tornado or two. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, gradually clearing skies
    across north-central OK and south-central KS have allowed
    temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to low 70s. Although diurnal
    mixing has scoured moisture to the south of the synoptic frontal
    zone (dewpoints have fallen into the mid to upper 40s), dewpoints
    remain in the mid 50s along the surface warm front and to the north
    of a differential heating/outflow boundary draped across northern
    OK. With steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading the region,
    MLCAPE is gradually increasing with further improvement possible
    amid a subtle influx of low-level moisture from northeast OK within
    the southeasterly flow regime. Thunderstorm initiation is probable
    in the coming hours in the vicinity of the surface low and/or along
    the differential heating boundary as ascent associated with a subtle
    mid-level perturbation overspreads the region (denoted by a cirrus
    plume currently over the TX Panhandle). Latest HRRR/WOFS guidance
    suggests this should occur during the 21-23 UTC time frame. Wind
    profiles will be favorable for supercells, and enhanced low-level
    helicity between the differential heating boundary and warm front
    may support a locally higher tornado threat across northern
    OK/south-central KS. Further downstream into southeast KS, the
    gradual erosion of the stratiform rain/cloud field casts uncertainty
    on destabilization, but a few robust storms will likely persist and
    pose a hail/wind threat this evening. Trends will continue to be
    monitored for watch issuance.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 03/07/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-zoD36Y4yufSplbyFwPeYsAHDu_ZLimRjQdSgLkDRQizzULeYmKG-WJ6JgdLjP1u0yKqn6kVC= UZZw1w_MczuCPWsLCM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36499692 36689742 36789777 36839802 37119812 37539782
    38059705 38309623 38469552 38439498 38099470 37759464
    37309480 36949538 36669625 36499692=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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