• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1119

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 11, 2022 22:15:21
    ACUS11 KWNS 112215
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112214=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-120045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1119
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0514 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

    Areas affected...eastern Kansas into western Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 112214Z - 120045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A significant damaging wind threat may develop this
    evening as storms evolve southward out of Nebraska. Embedded large
    hail may also occur.

    DISCUSSION...Rapid development is occurring over southeast Nebraska
    near the surface trough, with a group of supercells ongoing. Very
    large hail and even a tornado remain possible in the near term with
    these cells.=20

    With time, these storms are expected to merge as outflow production
    increases, resulting in a severe MCS. Damaging gusts over 75 mph
    will be possible given extreme instability in place and favorable
    northwest flow regime. MUCAPE is over 5000 J/kg across much of KS,
    with favorable southerly storm-relative inflow to support a
    forward-propagating MCS.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/11/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ZiJBbbqF0h9UGj2DAcLD-LheHj3DL1HJjFrPb3WgByHW3E-iuQi1bA1UfSuWyees-H0GwDEO= ocj6EIykAdY-43Pedk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 40579710 40399666 40269639 39979527 39699450 39579435
    39209408 38359404 37779471 37809589 37899671 38219741
    38769767 39759736 40579710=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 17, 2023 01:41:32
    ACUS11 KWNS 170141
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170140=20
    FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-170345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1119
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0840 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

    Areas affected...southern Alabama and Mississippi into the western
    Florida Panhandle.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 320...

    Valid 170140Z - 170345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 320
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for large hail and damaging winds continues
    across WW320. Damaging wind potential may be increasing across
    southwest AL in the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing severe storms across portions of WW320 have
    continued to maintain intensity with numerous reports of large hail
    from supercells in northwest and southeastern MS. The severe risk
    will likely continue this evening with large buoyancy and vertical
    shear still plentiful for organized supercells capable of large to
    very large hail. The second cluster of storms across western AL have
    grown upscale over the last hour. Hints of a bowing structure and
    stronger radial velocities aloft suggest the cold pool is likely
    intensifying, aiding in further upscale growth. Vertical shear and
    buoyancy remain favorable for strong updraft maintenance this
    evening with an increasing risk for damaging winds in addition to
    hail across portions of southwestern AL over the next couple of
    hours.

    ..Lyons.. 06/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_FaXps_yu21YG2BM3-oZUVpsJs11iUFaA6oxLs9IeWntwHYVC7_TpswVwRKHWXo8g8jpftpeq= ed3m4NQb1ZIejVCp2E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 32758714 31598640 31058625 30688625 30358635 30248726
    30098826 30138882 30428908 31908962 32769036 33009076
    33239093 33749093 33969069 32758714=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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