ACUS11 KWNS 112219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112219=20
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-112345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

Areas affected...Southeast MT...Northwest SD...Extreme northeast WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 112219Z - 112345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts and isolated hail is
expected to increase into this evening. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm cluster is gradually intensifying across
southeast MT as of 22Z, in conjunction with a midlevel shortwave
trough that is cresting the upper ridge across the northern Rockies.
Downstream MLCAPE is rather weak (generally in the 400-800 J/kg
range), but strong mid/upper-level flow will support very favorable
deep-layer shear across the region into the evening. With time, one
or more organized clusters are expected to evolve and move
east-southeastward, with some potential for embedded supercells. In
the short term, isolated severe gusts and marginal hail will be the
primary threats. A somewhat greater threat for severe wind gusts is
expected to evolve this evening as storms continue to intensify and
move toward northwest SD, especially if an organized linear mode can
be sustained. Watch issuance is possible by 00Z in order to cover
these threats.

..Dean/Thompson.. 06/11/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6e7TZhOEAYm2QsiVDdG6Pv3ZrTZ9JlkC2RlbL-_oyK6quZCs83ftXkbr3xHuAw7cDeL9mN6ov= daBTW0-uP790U_Qh0o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON 46370713 45880398 45540244 45070183 44660188 44500261
44510350 44630438 44870541 45140646 45210684 45530762
45920789 46370713=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 170237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170237=20
KSZ000-COZ000-170430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...far eastern Colorado and western Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319...322...

Valid 170237Z - 170430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319, 322
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across the far eastern
portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319 for the next hour and the
entirety of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322.

DISCUSSION...Some organization and upscale growth is occurring
across southeastern Colorado, where severe winds were measured with
a convective line moving through Lamar. This line is expected to
continue moving east-northeastward into Kansas in the next hour.=20
Farther north storms have formed along and to the north of an
east-west stationary front, resulting in more discrete storm mode
and a primary risk of severe hail. While this orientation is not
initially favorable for forward-propagating clusters and a wind
threat, eventual mergers with the convective line from the west may
increase the damaging wind threat through the evening.

..Jirak/Grams.. 06/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4rQLaOY59qht9J4c0yr8pwG1h8LTbjJ7G-4zUwElOXCGB9m0JBOLhzKGmVelnTyOnGg81DV_z= aobP1r_S7-ddHU8ER8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 37340276 37840251 38490273 38800288 39060279 39370121
39360066 39370025 39160005 38340020 37940057 37660103
37450148 37340276=20


=3D =3D =3D
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