ACUS11 KWNS 101807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101806=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-101930-
Mesoscale Discussion 1114
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022
Areas affected...portions of Louisiana and southern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342...
Valid 101806Z - 101930Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342
continues.
SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms from
this mornings' MCS should continue to re-strengthen this afternoon
across portions of the Gulf Coast. Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two will remain possible with the more organized
clusters. Some severe risk may continue later this afternoon, though uncertainty remains high.
DISCUSSION...As of 18 UTC, regional radar analysis showed the
remnant of an early Morning MCS persisting across portions of LA and
MS. Of these storms, two more organized clusters are currently
apparent, with additional organization/strengthening possible
through this afternoon. To the east, the bowing segment across
south-central MS is forecast to continue southeastward, toward far
southern MS and possibly far southwestern AL in the next couple of
hours. To the west, a smaller cluster has recently emerged across
portions of northern and central LA. Recent IR and radar imagery
show cooling cloud/echo tops indicating a general uptick in strength/organization of both clusters over the last hour. This
trend should continue through this afternoon as continued warming
and moistening of the boundary layer (70s F surface dewpoints)
results in further destabilization. SPC mesoanalysis shows 2500-3000
J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kt of effective shear resides over much of
the region. This will continue to favor strong updrafts in a
predominately linear mode. Heavily water loaded downdrafts and cold
pool forcing will support the risk for severe gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two through the early afternoon.
Less certainty exists on the longevity of these thunderstorms
clusters as they approach the immediate coast later this afternoon.
Hi-res guidance hints that as storms continue south and east, they
will outrun the stronger shear aloft and a decrease in storm
organization will gradually occur. The degree of buoyancy may
continue to support occasional stronger updrafts and some isolated
wind damage potential, particularly with the eastern most cluster as
it approaches far southern MS and southwestern AL. Conditions will
be monitored for a small downstream watch across this region, though
it remains unclear if it is needed.
..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/10/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8XWpeJguHGMSRYMMK-9XifRF5aWCNfaQpeN-qm-PlK_FNgPrxMy_qsxZUJKyuwSXDAue-7EiN= 6-WAu1uMXwW_aKZyjk$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 32758870 32478812 32068794 31408787 30898795 30608847
30428906 30129055 30159090 30199181 30429245 31599399
32139407 32299377 32249305 32079219 31859161 31899088
32209063 32898959 32758870=20
=3D =3D =3D
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