• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1114

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 10, 2022 18:07:22
    ACUS11 KWNS 101807
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101806=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-101930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1114
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0106 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

    Areas affected...portions of Louisiana and southern Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342...

    Valid 101806Z - 101930Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms from
    this mornings' MCS should continue to re-strengthen this afternoon
    across portions of the Gulf Coast. Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
    brief tornado or two will remain possible with the more organized
    clusters. Some severe risk may continue later this afternoon, though uncertainty remains high.

    DISCUSSION...As of 18 UTC, regional radar analysis showed the
    remnant of an early Morning MCS persisting across portions of LA and
    MS. Of these storms, two more organized clusters are currently
    apparent, with additional organization/strengthening possible
    through this afternoon. To the east, the bowing segment across
    south-central MS is forecast to continue southeastward, toward far
    southern MS and possibly far southwestern AL in the next couple of
    hours. To the west, a smaller cluster has recently emerged across
    portions of northern and central LA. Recent IR and radar imagery
    show cooling cloud/echo tops indicating a general uptick in strength/organization of both clusters over the last hour. This
    trend should continue through this afternoon as continued warming
    and moistening of the boundary layer (70s F surface dewpoints)
    results in further destabilization. SPC mesoanalysis shows 2500-3000
    J/kg of MLCAPE and 20-30 kt of effective shear resides over much of
    the region. This will continue to favor strong updrafts in a
    predominately linear mode. Heavily water loaded downdrafts and cold
    pool forcing will support the risk for severe gusts and perhaps a
    brief tornado or two through the early afternoon.

    Less certainty exists on the longevity of these thunderstorms
    clusters as they approach the immediate coast later this afternoon.
    Hi-res guidance hints that as storms continue south and east, they
    will outrun the stronger shear aloft and a decrease in storm
    organization will gradually occur. The degree of buoyancy may
    continue to support occasional stronger updrafts and some isolated
    wind damage potential, particularly with the eastern most cluster as
    it approaches far southern MS and southwestern AL. Conditions will
    be monitored for a small downstream watch across this region, though
    it remains unclear if it is needed.

    ..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/10/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8XWpeJguHGMSRYMMK-9XifRF5aWCNfaQpeN-qm-PlK_FNgPrxMy_qsxZUJKyuwSXDAue-7EiN= 6-WAu1uMXwW_aKZyjk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32758870 32478812 32068794 31408787 30898795 30608847
    30428906 30129055 30159090 30199181 30429245 31599399
    32139407 32299377 32249305 32079219 31859161 31899088
    32209063 32898959 32758870=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 16, 2023 21:51:29
    ACUS11 KWNS 162151
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162151=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-162315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1114
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0451 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

    Areas affected...east-central Colorado

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319...

    Valid 162151Z - 162315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
    across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319 over the next couple of hours.
    Severe hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...A nose of ascent ahead of a midlevel speed max is
    evident in water vapor imagery across southern Colorado. This has
    aided in additional thunderstorm initiation across the area over the
    past hour. These initially discrete storms will pose a threat of
    large hail and damaging winds as they move into better
    moisture/instability farther east over the plains. As the number of
    storms increases across the area and cold pools begin to merge, one
    or more convective clusters/lines may evolve eastward posing a
    primary threat of severe wind.

    ..Jirak/Grams.. 06/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5nU_UnWYd9gCf4_LCGonfZWmWR3TF1eIjRKM126HJI2S9sGkEHZXGu-MkcwNMekJBojwkPFEE= tXP6u1bc8s9kjNIxQc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 37730421 37950466 38230505 39070509 39370425 39510296
    39510208 39250190 38980175 38490187 38160217 37840291
    37730421=20


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