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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1110

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 10, 2022 07:57:26
    ACUS11 KWNS 100757
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100756=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-101000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1110
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0256 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

    Areas affected...Southern Kansas...Northern and Eastern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339...340...

    Valid 100756Z - 101000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339, 340
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue as cells move
    southeastward from southeast Kansas into northern and eastern
    Oklahoma. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be the main
    threats. A local extension in area for parts of northeastern
    Oklahoma between the two ongoing watches may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery from southern Kansas
    into east-central Oklahoma shows an MCS that is organizing in two
    parts. The first part is in southeast Kansas along an
    northwest-to-southeast gradient of instability, where the RAP has
    MLCAPE in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range. The second is in central
    Oklahoma, where a pocket of moderate to strong instability exists,
    with the RAP estimating MLCAPE as great as 3000 J/kg. The two areas
    of storms are expected to combine into one large MCS, with the
    stronger part of the MCS moving southeastward across parts of
    northeast and east-central Oklahoma. Although the severe threat will
    continue within the ongoing watches, an extension in area between
    the two watches may be needed for the developing severe threat in
    northeast Oklahoma.

    ..Broyles.. 06/10/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_cst4Qk0nMQIueiqYJXWAQF-OYqAI1gLWUW1KSc0HGxkmddFPxh6PkiyV3lafuVFFsovk-BtJ= gxT-A9MjToQLovTxhA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 38039810 37619829 37089801 35779715 34699702 33979692
    33699624 33709591 34049505 34769483 35419475 35909481
    36069481 36629507 37179565 37929645 38269699 38249769
    38169796 38039810=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 16, 2023 19:57:58
    ACUS11 KWNS 161957
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161957=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-162230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1110
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 161957Z - 162230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts and perhaps an instance of severe
    hail are possible this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Robust surface heating has resulted in 80+ F
    temperatures and subsequent storm initiation amid a well-mixed
    boundary layer. While a general increase in storm coverage (and to a
    degree, intensity) is expected through the afternoon, weak vertical
    shear and mediocre mid-level lapse rates suggest storms should be
    short-lived and primarily pulse cellular in nature. Nonetheless, 0-3
    km lapse rates are steep, reaching 9 C/km in some locales per 19Z
    mesoanalysis. As such, a couple of severe gusts may occur sometime
    this afternoon within the stronger storm cores, especially if any
    multicellular complexes can materialize. An instance or two of
    severe hail also cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, the overall
    severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance appears
    unlikely.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4djfD4JAMT3ysEyjyVAKN9JL-DZ0ymHDSt6rtJwmVrdscT3UlzzCwnTcPrSG3nfGPQPFxhsCJ= mJNTl7rqo6NZ5LrVjQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40100018 41739987 42789929 42969787 42829724 42299643
    41479621 40779659 40209738 40099761 39929848 39909936
    40100018=20


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