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ACUS11 KWNS 120752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120751=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-120945-
Mesoscale Discussion 0245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022
Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Gulf of Mexico through
northeastern Florida...southeastern Georgia and adjacent Atlantic
coastal waters
Concerning...Tornado Watch 42...
Valid 120751Z - 120945Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 42 continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms, spreading across northern Florida into
Georgia and South Carolina coastal areas through daybreak, may
include increasing potential for supercell structures capable of
producing tornadoes across the Jacksonville, FL vicinity, toward the Charleston, SC area, by 4-6 AM EST.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development, supported by persistent
focused lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, appears likely to
begin a more rapid east/northeastward development across northern
Florida into southeastern Georgia and adjacent South Carolina
coastal areas or waters through daybreak. This is expected to
coincide with the progression of more strongly difluent and
divergent upper flow, just ahead of the base of consolidating,
amplified upstream mid-level troughing, which is forecast to
gradually take on more of a neutral tilt while advancing toward the Appalachians.
Deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Appalachians
is forecast to be accompanied by further strengthening of south to southwesterly flow (to 50-70+ kt) in the 850-700 mb layer, along an
axis across northern Florida through southern Atlantic coastal
areas. Latest Rapid Refresh forecast soundings across the
Jacksonville, FL area toward the Charleston, SC vicinity suggest
that this could be accompanied by sufficient boundary-layer
moistening and destabilization to support intensifying thunderstorm
development within the more progressive evolving convective system
by around 9-11Z. In the presence of enlarging low-level hodographs,
including at least modest clockwise curvature, with wind profiles
exhibiting strong speed shear, the environment may become conducive
to embedded supercell structures capable of producing tornadoes, one
or two of which could be strong.
At the same time, the southern flank of the convective system may
also gradually approach central Florida Gulf coastal areas
near/north of Tampa, accompanied by increasing severe weather
potential as well.
..Kerr/Edwards.. 03/12/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p9Zw-RTE4hmxLQZf3Huc2WJE0u_8sfljvqEwtEVnuvxo7PxSnOi_SMc7dr9J8UU2PU1_lfuv$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30158355 30888181 31588137 32478010 31227980 29908045
28888222 27818323 27868502 28128573 29248461 30158355=20
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