ACUS11 KWNS 091821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091821=20
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-092015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1099
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Thu Jun 09 2022

Areas affected...Gulf Coast into north Florida and southeast Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091821Z - 092015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pose a threat for
damaging winds through the remainder of the afternoon. This
potential will be fairly localized; watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue to develop
along a diffuse frontal boundary draped from the southeastern
Carolinas into the Gulf Coast. Recent reflectivity data and IR
imagery has shown an uptick in updraft intensity over the past hour,
likely in response to increasing MLCAPE (latest mesoanalysis
estimates suggest 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE resides across the region
with minimal inhibition). Morning RAOBs and recent ACARS soundings
from the region support these estimates and reveal a dry layer
between 500-300 mb. This dry layer is supporting column theta-e
deficits on the order of 20-30 K, which, when combined with
steepening low-level lapse rates and moderate instability, is
conducive for strong downbursts capable of damaging (to perhaps
severe) winds. This potential will persist through the afternoon as temperatures warm into the 90s ahead of ongoing convection. Despite
the favorable thermodynamic environment, winds remain weak
throughout the column, which will continue to limit storm longevity, organization, and the potential for a more robust severe weather
threat.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/09/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4QF9sLHjKEpvycN6PaUEed-ja1ocMkcSRKzLEigejR4xDaSPgPKYzO-nfXjAqeQvzUeTLhDUm= EZ8Ovl0Xb_ZIG0m5mI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 29488099 28928113 28648215 28968310 29608363 29788421
29398495 29438550 29808579 30098632 30128713 29998863
30258932 30738947 31168904 31148817 31118614 31028513
30918415 31188325 31628243 32268175 32448144 32188098
31918088 31838072 31498093 31128126 30648136 30108119
29488099=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 161141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161141=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-161345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1099
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Areas affected...central and southern Mississippi into southern
Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 314...

Valid 161141Z - 161345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 314
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds is greatest currently over
east-central Mississippi, and will extend into southwest Alabama
shortly. Small areas in Alabama just north of the watch may have a damaging-wind threat as well.

DISCUSSION...A steady-state MCS continues to move rapidly east
across central and into east-central MS, at a speed around 55 kt.
This MCS is currently riding along the instability gradient which is
oriented from northwest to southeast from southern MS into the FL
Panhandle. Given this orientation, it is possible that northern
portions of the MCS may weaken over time, with the stronger storm
cores translating southeastward into the warmer air mass. While
parts of southern AL and the FL Panhandle are cooler at the surface
due to outflow from the overnight storms/flooding, veered/westerly
winds above this relative cool layer should aid elevated
instability, which may continue to fuel the MCS with damaging-wind
potential.

..Jewell.. 06/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5qVpg0OQ5YpsOrDHuy2qrHRw_FbFJpUMap3Kf1Mwm9khjj-Ed_L81xmROG9jHlTfTS9RFY5_S= iD0Y7W-fsYyR_vdDRc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32508889 32318670 32248623 32158605 31778602 31348607
31278605 31058611 30808630 30638664 30608731 30728829
30978899 31198923 31478921 32048903 32328899 32508889=20


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