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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1093

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 08, 2022 20:47:50
    ACUS11 KWNS 082047
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082047=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-082215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1093
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022

    Areas affected...Northern/Central MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 082047Z - 082215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across
    northern/central MS for the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Convective line moving through southern AR has recently
    shown more forward propagation over the past half hour or so, with a
    notable increase in outbound velocities from KLZK as well. Before
    this recent forward surge, the overall character of the line had
    been degrading, with only modest updrafts along the leading edge.
    However, cold-tops have remained relatively cold as the line moved
    across AR and recent trends suggest the line is likely a bit more
    organized than the reflectivity structure suggested.

    The downstream air mass is warm, moist, and unstable, with recent
    mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE from around 1500 to 2000 J/kg.
    However, visible satellite imagery shows relatively flat cumulus,
    likely a result of the warm low to mid-level temperatures and
    stunted buoyancy. Expectation is for the ongoing line to continue
    for at least the next hour or two, with some attendant threat for
    localized damaging wind gusts. However, the line is not forecast to
    increase in area extent or intensity, which should keep any severe
    potential isolated. As such, a watch is not currently anticipated,
    although convective trends will be monitored closely.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/08/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_NAPzOGt0JD2UCLXIERO3Flvi8auLDdsZNyJKEqXx_weHLzvbyXSvJ10AHhFAdVkVW9fPWXfX= c-aJNudsAnSk8eI5p4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

    LAT...LON 34199100 34248956 33858830 33138848 32738933 33089119
    34199100=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 16, 2023 04:22:10
    ACUS11 KWNS 160421
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160421=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-160545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1093
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1121 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of south-central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

    Valid 160421Z - 160545Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues over the next few
    hours for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312, especially for the
    southeastern portion of the watch. Severe wind will be the primary
    threat, though isolated severe hail may be possible from any
    discrete storms.

    DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms continue to move eastward across
    Oklahoma this evening. Overall, the northern part of the convective
    line has continued to weaken in the presence of lower instability
    and increasing inhibition. As a result, the strongest storms have
    developed on the southern/southwestern end of the convection, where
    the environment is more supportive of severe weather. Severe wind
    will be the primary threat from the weakening MCS, and severe hail
    and damaging winds will be possible from discrete storms forming
    back to the west.

    ..Jirak/Grams.. 06/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-o42lghUueynBtA4oHiJipe2Bf2ZAbX6jLZmW2zwCVBisS8fbiHq4QVqScizkiFYGR7M2PYXC= 1BE8J19IMzrvKzSCYw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33849666 33859684 33899735 34179791 34579818 34889743
    35089633 35079590 34869558 34459545 34169534 33869549
    33779627 33849666=20


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