ACUS11 KWNS 080635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080634=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-080830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325...327...

Valid 080634Z - 080830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325, 327
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated large hail threat will continue
for several more hours across eastern Kansas into western and
northern Missouri. Weather watch issuance may be needed to the
southeast of the current watches, as the linear MCS moves
southeastward.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Kansas City shows
a well-developed linear MCS ongoing from eastern Kansas into
northwest Missouri. A pocket of moderate instability is analyzed by
the RAP ahead of the severe line of storms. The strongest
instability is located mainly across western and central Missouri,
where MLCAPE is estimated in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. In
addition, an area of strong flow at 700 mb was analyzed to the west
of the line segment in northeast Kansas. This speed max was
providing support for the linear MCS. The latest WSR-88D VWP at
Kansas City has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots with directional shear in
the lowest 1 km. This will be favorable for a continued wind-damage
threat for several more hours. Isolated large hail will also be
possible with the more intense parts of the line.

..Broyles.. 06/08/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6MeHoXeQB8gvkCfyx5x2gflgi67kc2_JiAN1VbGEGvtiTQeGVnoWtlX-7py6wm8VGaWiYYGEC= LUZ3KYCojAMi1r0pGo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 40239202 40549285 40529343 40329376 40139386 39369443
38789494 38489552 38399611 38209642 37959651 37699638
37579572 37699451 37929334 38439240 39039195 39539180
40239202=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 152233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152233=20
TXZ000-160000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...central and North Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 309...

Valid 152233Z - 160000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 309 continues.

SUMMARY...Additional storm development/intensification is likely
through the remainder of the afternoon into this evening with
organizing supercells. Tornadoes, large to giant hail and damaging
winds remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of central and North TX, strong to
severe storms were observed maturing east of a dryline. Additional development/intensification into the evening appears likely owing to
extreme buoyancy (5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) aided by an abnormally strong
EML and mid to upper 70s F dewpoints. 60 kt of effective shear
observed from area VADs will continue to support a predominately
supercell mode with the primary threat of large to giant hail. While
initially weak, especially with southern extent, low-level shear
should intensify this evening as the low-level jet increases. This
may also aid in some upscale growth of ongoing storms, and some
expansion of additional storms moving south across the Red River
from OK. Should this occur, a locally greater risk for damaging
winds may develop, especially across the northeastern portions of
WW309 toward the DFW metroplex later this evening.

..Lyons.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ETZjWuSVs920E7nS5kXgkXmjkHszBAAlvgbyaMu_hKZYN8811iTXrMHYnrpSYnENhWMYccq6= esuHhNf5huDjwMcQE4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30719813 30539865 30619905 30989932 32149960 33339937
33489875 33579788 33569723 33519675 33439653 33299621
33059600 32649600 32459610 31609651 30909746 30719813=20


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