• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1080

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 08, 2022 01:06:08
    ACUS11 KWNS 080106
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080105=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-080230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1080
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0805 PM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of northeast NM into the far western TX
    Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322...

    Valid 080105Z - 080230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The supercell risk will continue across parts of northeast
    NM in the near-term, though a downstream watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from AMA shows two right-mover
    supercells tracking east-southeastward along the gradient of strong
    instability (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) over northeast NM. Strong
    westerly flow atop southeasterly low-level flow is contributing to favorably-long hodographs (45-55 kt effective shear) and modestly
    enhanced streamwise vorticity in the boundary layer. This
    environment will continue to support the risk of large hail and
    damaging gusts in the near-term, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled
    out. Given increasing capping with southward and eastward extent, a
    downstream watch is not expected at this time. However, local
    extensions in time of WW322 may be needed.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/08/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Wm8rZF0wMaAD53R-yjSPRfhd_0W5aHD7Dg_AlSirTy6jSdKnl5AXx4kiPfpWDWsK7AxxJOhy= J-x3pxob-15pELiH2g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 34950419 35740444 36000436 36160404 36130322 35860280
    34900271 34520311 34380375 34600399 34950419=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 15, 2023 20:22:44
    ACUS11 KWNS 152022
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152021=20
    OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-152215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1080
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0321 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

    Areas affected...northeastern IN...northern OH and southeastern MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152021Z - 152215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated damaging winds
    and marginally severe hail this afternoon and evening. A watch is
    not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Across the southern Great Lakes, afternoon visible
    imagery showed developing thunderstorms across portions of southern
    MI into northern IN/OH. Aided by forcing for ascent ahead of a
    compact shortwave trough moving in from the north, additional storm development/intensification is likely through this afternoon. Ahead
    of the developing storms, afternoon heating has allowed for the
    development of ~500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 35-45 kt of effective shear.
    A few robust/organized updrafts in the form of multi cell clusters
    and or weak supercells may develop and pose a severe risk this
    afternoon and early evening. Given the well-mixed boundary layer and
    mostly unidirectional shear profiles, damaging winds would be the
    most likely threat. Some marginally severe hail may also be possible
    with any more persistent storms. Given the relatively limited
    buoyancy, severe coverage is expected to remain isolated and
    gradually decrease through the evening with the loss of daytime
    heating. Convective trends will be monitored though a weather watch
    is not anticipated

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5XRknS8JG__HxLlIzIilk6-YGLbVL3jPfUZ1aVZ3O7nEwE9t1zjeR1jNAr_nLmtyv0Ur7nJKb= mZUGE9Ts1h9p9mMB8M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 40468488 41018543 42518437 42938397 43068344 43008294
    42878260 42478197 41908117 41468093 40928094 40328144
    40018213 40058354 40208457 40468488=20


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