ACUS11 KWNS 072245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072244=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-072345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Areas affected...Central/Eastern Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...and
Extreme Northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 072244Z - 072345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will develop/spread
southeast across Nebraska into southwest Iowa and northern Kansas
this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are expected. New Severe Thunderstorm watch is warranted.

DISCUSSION...Quick-moving short-wave trough is now influencing
convection across the central Plains. MCS will likely evolve over
west-central NE in the next few hours and this complex will surge
southeast toward the KS border later this evening. Additionally, new
convection may also evolve along the frontal zone that is currently
draped across southern NE into west-central IA. Large hail is
expected with supercells but damaging winds will become more common
as a squall line matures along the leading edge of the developing
MCS. New severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued in the next
hour or so.

..Darrow/Hart.. 06/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9GLyvy-nG3KVR20jX4bzItq8tSiSs76cGISCiDOuf6CqCioTeUbE4M0u86HNdSSBRxtE9YDCU= JxPqKm906KEfQCmt5c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 41769888 41519582 39849657 40169949 41769888=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 151849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151849=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-152045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Central/Eastern OK Panhandle...Western/Central
OK...Eastern TX Panhandle...Far Northwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 151849Z - 152045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe
hazards, including giant hail, hurricane-force wind gusts, and
tornadoes, are expected across the region this afternoon and
evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery currently shows an expanding
cumulus field from the central/eastern OK Panhandle down through the
eastern TX Panhandle and into far northwest TX. Thus far, most of
the cumulus within this field have a relatively flat appearance,
with only a few pockets with more vertical development (i.e. over
far southwest OK/far northwest TX and central OK Panhandle). Recent mesoanalysis suggests some convective inhibition remains, which is
verified with the appearance of the cumulus field.=20

Continued air mass destabilization is anticipated, with the limited
convective inhibition likely eroding over the next hour. This
erosion of the inhibition coupled with forcing for ascent attendant
to the approaching shortwave trough, and additional mesoscale ascent
related to the low-level confluence over the region, will likely
result in convective initiation by 20Z (perhaps even sooner).=20

The air mass over the region represents a rare combination of
buoyancy of shear during any time of the year, but particularly mid
June. Forecast sounding suggest MLCAPE from 3000 to 4000 J/kg and
effective bulk shear from 60 to 70 kt when storms initiate. These
type of environment will result in intense supercells, capable of
all severe hazards, including giant hail (3"+ in diameter),
hurricane-force wind gusts, and tornadoes. The tornado potential may
be mitigated somewhat by the higher LCLs and relatively modest
low-level shear. However, given the overall character of the
environment, tornadic supercells cannot be ruled out.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4sFLmWHtI7_A9FOJe-pgd_XOTCNO5HrVgomOPw_tgXVEzpwpRF_R9ATRHVwd_uBmEtyWOBytv= 0BaoDYcRL1SZYSDEaY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36000116 36710153 36990125 36970023 35899812 34249711
33809804 33989945 34189999 34620034 36000116=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 151915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151915 COR
OKZ000-TXZ000-152045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Central/Eastern OK Panhandle...Western/Central
OK...Eastern TX Panhandle...Far Northwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 151915Z - 152045Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN DISCUSSION

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe
hazards, including giant hail, hurricane-force wind gusts, and
tornadoes, are expected across the region this afternoon and
evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery currently shows an expanding
cumulus field from the central/eastern OK Panhandle down through the
eastern TX Panhandle and into far northwest TX. Thus far, most of
the cumulus within this field have a relatively flat appearance,
with only a few pockets with more vertical development (i.e. over
far southwest OK/far northwest TX and central OK Panhandle). Recent mesoanalysis suggests some convective inhibition remains, which is
verified with the appearance of the cumulus field.=20

Continued air mass destabilization is anticipated, with the limited
convective inhibition likely eroding over the next hour. This
erosion of the inhibition coupled with forcing for ascent attendant
to the approaching shortwave trough, and additional mesoscale ascent
related to the low-level confluence over the region, will likely
result in convective initiation by 20Z (perhaps even sooner).=20

The air mass over the region represents a rare combination of
buoyancy and shear during any time of the year, but particularly mid
June. Forecast sounding suggest MLCAPE from 3000 to 4000 J/kg and
effective bulk shear from 60 to 70 kt when storms initiate. These
type of environment will result in intense supercells, capable of
all severe hazards, including giant hail (3"+ in diameter),
hurricane-force wind gusts, and tornadoes. The tornado potential may
be mitigated somewhat by the higher LCLs and relatively modest
low-level shear. However, given the overall character of the
environment, tornadic supercells cannot be ruled out.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9T0CZf4llFQ_sc_X8InXq_aSOUIzKrwzFpS0zfOtcFgQEZlfBZLsOFNAJhDwp_txmOYiaJN6O= p8N2aIXZ7EVsCOyhUw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35180048 36710153 36990125 36870012 35899812 34249711
33809804 33989945 34189999 34500019 35180048=20


=3D =3D =3D
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