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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1071

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 07, 2022 17:25:09
    ACUS11 KWNS 071725
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071724=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-072000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1071
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern AR into northern
    MS...western TN/KY...and southeastern MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 071724Z - 072000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for scattered damaging winds and isolated hail
    may increase this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing
    across parts of western AR. An MCV embedded within this cluster and
    the presence of a rear inflow jet also appear present in recent
    radar reflectivity and velocity imagery. Even with some cloud cover
    present downstream into central/eastern AR, daytime heating has
    allowed surface temperatures to already increase into the low to mid
    80s. A very moist low-level airmass is also present across this
    region, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s. With
    steep mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z LZK sounding, around
    2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE has already developed. Low-level flow
    remains weak, but mid-level west-northwesterly winds are forecast to
    gradually strengthen in tandem with the eastward-moving MCV and a
    weak shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery. Around
    25-35 kt of effective bulk shear should allow for some continued
    thunderstorm organization, with multicell clusters the most probable
    mode. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat if the
    cluster can strengthen and become more organized into
    central/eastern AR. Additional convection has developed east of the
    cluster along a weak surface boundary in eastern AR and western TN.
    This convection may also pose an isolated threat for hail and
    strong/gusty winds if it can strengthen over the next few hours.
    Observational trends will be monitored for signs of increasing
    convective organization and intensity, which may eventually prompt
    watch issuance.

    ..Gleason/Mosier.. 06/07/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_VbAE67I078lUdfyOLti2yQUxwE5NZhrWwUWaS3oElV8w2YHyXZuswN64rYq64DrFPZxG69yA= oSwAdvuqKjJb528Pc0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

    LAT...LON 33669288 34259254 34959278 35809341 36119225 36329134
    36929036 36968875 36818844 36308819 35538812 34658889
    33739103 33669288=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 15, 2023 16:56:43
    ACUS11 KWNS 151656
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151656=20
    OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-151900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1071
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1156 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast CO...Extreme Northeast NM...Far Western
    OK Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 151656Z - 151900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated large hail and/or strong
    gusts are possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows increasing
    cumulus over the Raton Mesa vicinity as well as near the developing
    lee surface low across southeast CO. The air mass will continue to
    warm and destabilization, with thunderstorm development anticipated
    across the lower elevations during the next hour or two. This area
    is displaced north of the stronger flow aloft, suggesting a less
    organized storm mode, with a trend towards more outflow dominant
    cells. Even so, strong buoyancy will be in place, which could
    contribute to robust updrafts capable of producing isolated hail.
    Gusty outflow is also possible. The overall severe thunderstorm
    coverage is expected to remain isolated, with the intensity of the
    storms mitigated by limited vertical shear. As such, a watch is not
    anticipated across this area.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_DvD5MSJ5SMKdGh_GXf5fuCrPQ0OYcTAj3OqOlRqSIFaSNLvTnlYfqQUeWfTgTFov2Hq3e65v= OfzhmUVdWDGBaAPvdg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36570446 37380414 38160311 38200243 37120244 36570298
    36490352 36570446=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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