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ACUS11 KWNS 052147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052146=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-052315-
Mesoscale Discussion 0195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CST Sat Mar 05 2022
Areas affected...portions of central Iowa and northern Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 27...
Valid 052146Z - 052315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 27 continues.
SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms should continue to track east
northeast over the next several hours across IA and northern MO.
Damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes will be
possible. Some upscale growth is expected as storms track farther
east into central and eastern Iowa later this evening.
DISCUSSION...As of 21:45 UTC, a semi-discrete band of supercells
were ongoing across far southwestern IA and northwestern MO. In the
wake of early-day storms, clearing ahead of a strong surface cyclone
and upper trough have allowed weak destabilization (500-1000 J/kg)
of MLCAPE to propagate ahead of the cells ongoing across central IA
and northern MO. These storms should continue to keep pace with the
rapidly recovering warm sector posing a risk for all hazards over
the next few hours.
Initial storm mode has been messy with multiple updrafts in close
proximity across western IA. This is likely a result of
relatively-long straight-line hodographs above weekly veered surface
flow. Additional upscale growth appears likely with these storms as
they track northeastward. All hazards, including damaging wind
gusts, and a few tornadoes will however remain possible given strong
low-level shear (0-1km srh 150-200 m2/s2) supporting small
mesocyclones.=20
Farther south, more discrete convection across northern MO were
tracking toward southern IA. Greater residence time within the
expanding warm sector and resulting stronger low-level mesocyclones
may result in a locally greater risk of tornadoes over the next
several hours. Upscale growth into more linear segments with a risk
of damaging gusts appears possible into portions of eastern Iowa
where an additional watch may be needed later this
afternoon/evening.
..Lyons.. 03/05/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v0UAbrVbD9kkmS4WFcMnxj_rpfFJMY6tU-wjk0w5cULdohHznBcxBIyob4VUc5kmveERJ7wP$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 40949214 40619248 40329297 39979387 39789435 39749480
40089489 40739501 41459529 41929507 42359357 42429258
42399227 42319204 41979180 41529182 41029211 40949214=20
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