ACUS11 KWNS 071826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071826=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-072100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Areas affected...Portions of eastern CO...western KS...northeastern
NM...and the OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071826Z - 072100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing threat for very large hail and severe wind
gusts should increase as thunderstorms develop this afternoon. Watch
issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...High-based convection has begun to develop over the
higher terrain of southern/central CO and northeastern NM early this
afternoon. An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected over central/eastern CO and vicinity over the next few hours as ascent
associated with a mid/upper-level jet and shortwave trough
overspreads the central High Plains. Strong deep-layer shear is
already present, with 45-55+ kt of effective bulk shear being
estimated by latest mesoanalysis. Weak instability at the moment
will increase quickly to around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, with mostly
clear conditions encouraging robust diurnal heating. This
combination of strong shear and sufficient instability will likely
support supercells with the initial robust development along/near
the I-25 corridor within the next couple of hours as lingering
convective inhibition erodes. Large hail should be the main threat
with these supercells, although severe downdraft winds may also
occur. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated
very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) may occur. Most guidance
suggests the severe threat will increase by 20-21Z (2-3 PM MDT), and
watch issuance is likely by this time frame.

..Gleason/Mosier.. 06/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!40Fd7xgv5lT5bkcYdTcyCQzqimUgiud_ZtPvleo0UYnJjAreBCpvEdXHRkQAqp7oZOozOixqs= Vv1oA79G66aLUB7M8Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 40350208 39460111 36530113 36130218 36060330 36100441
36700488 39130483 40970452 40950266 40350208=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 151744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151744=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-151945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Southwest KS...Far Southeast CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 151744Z - 151945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very
large hail, and a tornado or two are possible across far southeast
CO into southwest KS this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown an increasingly
agitated cumulus field across southwest KS over the past hour or so.
A few instances of greater vertical development are now apparent
within this field, and the expectation is for eventual thunderstorm
initiation as air mass destabilization persists and lift, both
attendant to the approaching shortwave trough and withing areas of
low-level confluence, increases.=20

Very steep lapse rates are in place, with mesoanalysis estimating
8.5 to 9 deg C per km from 700 to 500 mb. Continued low-level
moisture advection into this region is expected, counteracting any
mixing and likely keeping dewpoints in the low 60s. This combination
of low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in
strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg possible this
afternoon. Vertical shear will be stronger farther south, but 30 to
40 kt of effective bulk shear is still anticipated over this area.
This should be sufficient for supercells, with very large hail as
the primary risk. Some hail may exceed 2.5" in diameter. Strong
downdrafts are possible in this region as well. There is some threat
for a tornado or two is well, but, despite favorable low-level
moisture, LCLs will still be relatively high. The tornado risk does
increase with southward extent where stronger southeasterly surface
winds are expected.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!71B5-cFC-gc0JU2v4Emp1cnjXFWnH7fUmujTcw8FonDdwhiM5QR0oH3aapaBIlWbSO4U2nanv= lFnq5F2vlDK8GhZn18$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 37120013 36950062 36910101 36930150 37020189 37310224
38030204 38310087 37650008 37120013=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)