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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1068

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 07, 2022 13:51:07
    ACUS11 KWNS 071351
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071350=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-071515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1068
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0850 AM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of southeastern OK into northeast TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319...

    Valid 071350Z - 071515Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest severe wind threat should exist across parts
    of southeastern Oklahoma this morning. Some of the winds could be
    significantly severe (75+ mph).

    DISCUSSION...A supercell over central OK has recently morphed into a
    small, intense bow with evidence of a pronounced rear inflow jet. A
    measured wind gust to 72 mph was recently recorded at the Byars OK
    Mesonet site with this convection. Current track of this
    thunderstorm shows a rapid southeastward motion around 45-50 kt.
    Severe wind gusts will likely remain the primary severe threat in
    the short term, with potential for significant gusts of 75+ mph in a
    narrow corridor across parts of southeastern OK for the next hour or
    two. It remains unclear whether this cluster will be able to
    maintain its intensity into parts of northeast TX later this
    morning. Substantial inhibition is present on the 12Z FWD sounding,
    but diurnal heating is already occurring across much of east TX.
    This should erode the MLCIN to some extent. A 30-35 kt southwesterly
    low-level jet which is presently feeding into the convection is also
    forecast to weaken over the next few hours, which may impact the
    intensity of the ongoing convection as well. Given this uncertainty,
    it remains unclear whether another watch into parts of northeast TX
    will be needed.

    ..Gleason.. 06/07/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-qnDU18yil5Mmi3XCJerRdOfWxEeH6s2_Jl-4ZduW-uRQHpQEIbCMLmw4eVYOb5g29gBB57fw= p9Y_ldqw94F-35XCEI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34589694 34809667 34709604 34389540 33889492 33409538
    33429603 34149683 34589694=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 15, 2023 14:15:38
    ACUS11 KWNS 151415
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151415=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-151645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1068
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0915 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of southeast/coastal GA and far north FL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 151415Z - 151645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds and hail may gradually
    increase this morning. Watch issuance is possible in the next couple
    of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will move east-southeastward this morning
    across southern GA and towards the Atlantic Coast. The airmass
    across far southeast GA into northeast FL is less unstable compared
    to locations farther south/west due to an outflow boundary/
    convectively reinforced front draped from southern AL into the FL
    Panhandle. The ongoing activity may be slightly elevated at the
    moment. But, diurnal heating and gradually moistening low-levels
    should allow MLCAPE to increase this morning, and erode lingering
    MLCIN. Eventually, thunderstorms may become surface based and pose a
    threat for damaging winds as low-level lapse rates steepen. Strong
    deep-layer shear should also support some threat for supercells and
    hail. Observational trends will be closely monitored for possible
    watch issuance in the next couple of hours.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5IDL8ZoRvjXuXleLRXPYpOyjgWn_ihG-DAwdbvtUvPMQ2Xx2o3GoYgBb6n4DA3cbPZZhDvQ9s= 60ifYFa1QcBfRt8ocs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...

    LAT...LON 31478297 31768264 31238149 30308168 30078241 30228312
    30898289 31478297=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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