ACUS11 KWNS 071244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071244=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-071515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1067
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Areas affected...South-central and Southeast Oklahoma into Southwest
Arkansas and far Northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071244Z - 071515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, with wind damage and hail
potential, may continue for several more hours across parts of
south-central and southeast Oklahoma, and possibly affecting parts
of the Arklatex. WW issuance could be needed if organization occurs
with the cluster of storms.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Oklahoma City
shows a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms oriented from
west-northwest to the east-southeast. The cluster is located along
the southern edge of a corridor of moderate instability, along which
MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In
addition, the Oklahoma City WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45
knots with speed shear in the mid-levels. This could be an
environment favorable for damaging wind gusts, especially if a cold
pool can organize with the current cluster. Large hail would be
possible in the stronger cores. If the cluster remains in a more
east-to-west orientation, then some weakening would be expected this
morning.

..Broyles/Grams.. 06/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6o9fBJCJf_w4A8RDkBlhRi3Vj8Joz-XGi2jvDFh35b8v5NCI-CYFcgsx_EuTMHN3uFhFZWWIm= 2OfmqQpprcIiWzA2Dk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34719798 34269699 33779577 33259472 32909393 32999344
33289324 33729329 34099348 34589423 34999497 35429610
35679707 35699767 35519793 35119810 34719798=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 151348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151348=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-151445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1067
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern AL...southwestern
GA...and the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon=20

Valid 151348Z - 151445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat should continue to increase this morning.
New Tornado Watch issuance will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are occurring across far southeastern AL
into southwestern GA this morning. This activity is occurring along
and just north of an instability gradient, with daytime heating and
low-level moistening also occurring ahead of these thunderstorms.
Strong deep-layer shear will continue to support a threat for
supercells. Sufficient low-level shear will also foster some
potential for updraft rotation, and a threat for a few tornadoes.
Large hail and damaging winds may also occur. Additional robust
thunderstorms may develop farther south in the FL Panhandle in the
modest low-level warm advection regime. Given the increasing severe
threat, new Tornado Watch is warranted.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6jybYoMlLsAARaEFIVEpadkPuPsBJvsFIj-MWTWI2KdkQ0Nsa6FsCJAwYWLe2lXYt2nbi25Zt= Y0_CeYtpyzGtQX5-38$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON 31458569 31658505 31758467 31748385 31638334 31338329
30248338 29888353 30178569 31458569=20


=3D =3D =3D
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