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ACUS11 KWNS 120225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120224=20 WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-MSZ000-120730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

Areas affected...Portions of Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 120224Z - 120730Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow in western portions of Tennessee and Kentucky
will continue north and east this evening and into the overnight.
Rapid cooling ahead of this activity will support a quick change to
snow. Rates of 1-2 inches per hour are possible, particularly in
areas of terrain enhancement.

DISCUSSION...KNQA radar imagery has shown a band of 30-35 dBZ
precipitation develop and move through western Tennessee. Higher
values of KDP aloft suggest heavier snowfall rates are possible
which has been corroborated by recent surface reports within the
region. This band is expected to continue to the north and east this
evening into the overnight. Downstream of this band, temperatures in Middle/eastern Tennessee and eastern Kentucky are still in the 40s
to low 50s F. As the shortwave continues into the Mid-South, a
deepening surface low development in the central Gulf Coast will
support an increase in cold air advection across these areas. This,
along with cooling within heavier precipitation bands, will support
a relatively quick transition to snow. Frontogenesis at 850-700 mb
and ascent with the shortwave will support 1-2 inch per hour snow
rates. The greatest rates are most likely along the western
foothills/slopes of the Appalachians where upslope flow at low
levels will enhance vertical motion.

..Wendt.. 03/12/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tKnBSp4H2WkdF5P4DeYBa6lAr0zRkfv9xCpabSRoZcimKQDW6xRqrc5HD_0bDYX1tTE5eiAU$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...
PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 35098989 35818877 36468774 36738764 37758657 38168575
38618488 38828420 38768284 38048232 36948264 35458446
34898558 34678683 34638804 34528937 34768987 35098989=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 031002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031001=20 KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-031230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern MS/AL...western into Middle
TN...western KY...far southeast MO...and far southern IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 031001Z - 031230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will likely be needed by 13-14z/7-8 am
CST across portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys.
Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through
midday/early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary boundary is evident in surface
analysis extending from west-central TN toward the TN/KY border
vicinity north of Nashville. Meanwhile, the warm front, demarcating
mid-60s F surface dewpoints from upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints,
is arcing from near Memphis into east-central MS (between Starkville
and Tupelo) and central AL. Large-scale ascent ejecting into east
TX, as the mid/upper trough becomes more negatively tilted as of
10z, will aid in deepening of the surface low over central AR as it
tracks northeast toward the Lower OH Valley through midday. As this
occurs, the warm front will lift northward, allowing for
destabilization of the airmass downstream from WW 59 across parts of
northern MS into western and Middle TN, and eventually northward
toward the lower OH River.=20

Ongoing precipitation across parts of western/Middle TN/southeast
MO/western KY and vicinity lends to some uncertainty with respect to
the northern extent of severe potential through the morning, and
possible watch issuance. While a relative minimum in severe activity
may exist in the short term, as the warm front surges northward
through mid-morning, forecast soundings in addition to CAMs and
deterministic guidance suggest organized convection will develop
northeast from near the MS River through western KY.

Where the more moist and unstable airmass evolves, sufficient
low-level instability, in the presence of intense low-level shear
(aided by a 50-60 kt 850 mb jet), will support organized linear
convection with perhaps embedded or semi-discrete cells. Damaging
gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible with this activity
through midday/early afternoon. A downstream watch will likely be
needed by around 13z-14z.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 03/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7P7JB_BEycPJQAuBWoHl46KlOpk7XQW6FZ1laNcCNUQhIBIdFBfsKviyff8xbnxoKLtzTqjnZ= UBi5ALH46RIhTpeUIo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 36008974 36938956 37368926 37688873 37868807 37918734
37868678 37748655 37208638 36328636 35068661 34518683
34178714 33848781 33598840 33638940 33788978 34038992
36008974=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 142326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142325=20
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-150100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southern and eastern Ohio into
northwestern West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142325Z - 150100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Discrete storms have tried to initiate in southwestern
Ohio into northern Kentucky. Additional organized storms will
eventually reach the upper Ohio Valley later this evening. The need
for a watch is quite uncertain in the short term, but convective
trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Storms have attempted to initiate in southwestern Ohio
into northern Kentucky. While it is not clear whether this activity
will mature, regional VAD profiles suggest that these storms would
be capable of large hail and tornadoes. Later in the evening, storms
currently in southern Illinois into central Indiana will likely
reach the upper Ohio Valley. An airmass supportive of severe storms
continues to try and work eastward. There is at least some
possibility that an organized line will reach these areas and
require a downstream watch. However, uncertainty remains too high to
issue one at this time. Convective trends will continue to be
monitored.

..Wendt/Hart.. 03/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8mKCMCXLiuqxA6RbENvq7ji_43X70ZsWxxjl3oCsqU4wBtNcAGTaseUcogflb9ifZz0AEkGAu= GiXynOKK8k6Iq5nTPM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 38828436 39058430 39198403 39208366 39358254 39698196
40018202 40608207 40978188 41178122 40838064 39578052
39018091 38318255 38478332 38828436=20


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