ACUS11 KWNS 062340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062340=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-070115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Eastern CO...Western KS...OK Panhandle...Far
northern TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315...

Valid 062340Z - 070115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for hail and locally severe wind gusts
continues, with some potential for the severe wind risk to increase
in coverage this evening.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across
eastern CO into western KS, with occasional supercell structures
noted. While instability is relatively limited (MLCAPE generally
500-1000 J/kg), favorably veering wind profiles noted on the KPUX
VWP will continue to support supercell potential in the short term,
with a corresponding hail threat.=20

Recent radar/satellite data indicate expanding outflows across
eastern CO, with an 82 mph wind gust noted in Lamar, CO at 2231 UTC.
Outflow consolidation may support some clustering with time, as
storms propagate eastward along a weak surface boundary that extends
into west-central KS. This could result in a somewhat more
widespread severe-wind threat for a time this evening into western
KS, where strong heating has resulted in steep low-level lapse
rates. Some severe threat may spread out of WW 315, and either local
watch extension or new watch issuance may be needed to cover the
threat further east with time.

..Dean/Hart.. 06/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Qdnd_D6ZN_RbdgVhPeOUlLVv6imyTABa7fAvlEBCKtWxMEsd9PhO_Unm8crO4eOalvdC95qX= DeHMHGvjjZy3vIiAXg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39490374 39530363 39320103 38809966 38039917 37139933
36749991 36510033 36420083 36280166 36280244 36520289
37010294 39490374=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 150134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150133=20
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-150330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...northeastern Arkansas...the Missouri Boot heel and
portions of western Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 150133Z - 150330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Splitting supercells may continue to pose a risk for
isolated large hail for a few more hours this evening. Convective
trends will be monitored though severe coverage is expected to
remain isolated and a weather watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...To the northeast of Severe Watch #297, isolated
thunderstorms including a couple of splitting supercells have been
noted across portions of northeastern AR and far southeastern MO.
Over the last hour, these storms have slowly intensified ahead of a
subtle southern stream shortwave trough over northeast OK and
southern MO. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and 50 kt
of unidirectional effective shear will continue to support robust
organized updrafts in a splitting supercell mode. Isolated large
hail will be the primary concern with the persistent storms as they
track slowly east/southeast over the next few hours. Storm coverage
and longevity remains somewhat uncertain given previous convective
overturning and the loss of daytime heating. Conditions will be
monitored, but the lack of greater storm coverage beyond the ongoing
storms suggests a weather watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Grams.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5X9qZvpj3C_wx4tlni5mOdUmnp15hMTDwDZW2NrC67RezuC7hb4E_-873kCLmGOBCClQ186II= u_XadX_6bSD9rArveM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 36589018 36428952 35728922 35308915 35108931 35038954
34999030 35209055 35539124 35699176 35879218 36009228
36259214 36479167 36569101 36589018=20


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