ACUS11 KWNS 062222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062222=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-062345-
Mesoscale Discussion 1057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022
Areas affected...Eastern WY...Southwest SD...Western/central NE
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 314...
Valid 062222Z - 062345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 314
continues.
SUMMARY...A few potentially long-lived supercells will move
southeastward into this evening. Hail (possibly greater than 2" in
diameter) and locally severe wind gusts will be the primary threats.
Downstream watch issuance into central Nebraska is likely.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms, including a few
supercells, are ongoing late this afternoon from northwest WY into
southwest SD and northwest/north-central NE. Moderate instability
(MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), effective shear of greater than 40 kt,
and large-scale ascent associated with an approaching upper-level
jet maximum will help to sustain this convection into the evening.
With a rather large expanse of favorable environment downstream of
ongoing convection, a few long-lived supercells are likely to
continue moving southeastward into this evening.=20
The generally discrete mode will continue to favor large hail as the
primary hazard. While buoyancy is not particularly large,
significant (2 inch or greater in diameter) hail will be possible
with the stronger supercells, especially as mid/upper-level shear
continues to increase into the early evening. Steep low-level lapse
rates will also support an isolated severe wind risk.=20
There is some potential for severe storms to spread southeast of WW
314 by early evening. Downstream watch issuance into central NE is
likely.
..Dean/Hart.. 06/06/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9XF7ErEeCyP7tXFytSwaVwSgHcg-YjJAJnKwJAlIlMPiCR_L9AqCb1AMevZSBNCHrUpba_360= I6X4UKdJAa2I_QeZRQ$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...
BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 40690205 41560465 43480602 43610602 44970603 44990602
45210404 45210396 45210370 45210356 45210349 45200300
45210296 45040200 45040200 43009925 42629846 42159822
41509807 41029796 40589788 40239886 40480029 40600136
40690205 40690205=20
=3D =3D =3D
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