• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1056

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 06, 2022 20:47:32
    ACUS11 KWNS 062047
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062046=20
    NEZ000-062245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1056
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0346 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of south-central/southeastern NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 062046Z - 062245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A lone supercell will continue to pose a threat for large
    hail and severe winds in the short term. If additional thunderstorms
    can develop, a watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A single, robust supercell that developed and
    subsequently strengthened over the past hour or two over eastern NE
    has a history of producing hail up to 2 inches in diameter. This
    cell is presently located to the north of a weak surface front. But,
    around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-45 kt of effective bulk shear
    will likely support continued convective organization and a severe
    hail threat with this supercell in the short term. The main
    uncertainty is whether additional robust thunderstorms will develop
    along/near the surface boundary over the next couple of hours.
    Recent visible satellite imagery shows a few attempts at convective
    initiation farther west in central NE. If it becomes more certain
    that multiple intense thunderstorms will develop across
    south-central into southeastern NE in addition to the ongoing
    supercell, then a watch may be needed.

    ..Gleason/Mosier.. 06/06/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9SbaUL9vgGrN_Vz0gAQJIW-mD-sqrk8us_KyjVYs0f5qna1ER3q-KT-2OtomVXJtVqGSI-l2N= C0IlQX9tpyp1Cv_5ZE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

    LAT...LON 40809870 41509823 41549768 41239664 40939638 40179645
    40029693 40039799 40109870 40789878 40809870=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 15, 2023 00:08:35
    ACUS11 KWNS 150008
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150007=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-150130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1056
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0707 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

    Areas affected...Southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida
    Panhandle.

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 298...

    Valid 150007Z - 150130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 298 continues.

    SUMMARY...An enhanced swatch of severe wind gusts (potentially
    hurricane force) is expected into the Florida Panhandle.

    DISCUSSION...An organized bow echo has recently developed and is
    accelerating southeast toward southwest Georgia and the eastern
    Florida Panhandle. Recent reports have been received of 65 to 70 mph
    wind gusts near the apex of this bow. However, even stronger winds
    may be possible over the next hour as this bow echo matures further.
    The EOX VWP is sampling the rear inflow jet around 65 knots at 2km
    and base velocities at the apex of the bow continue to increase.

    Additionally, a very strong core aloft has developed near the apex
    with 1.5 inch MRMS MESH. This could result in some wind-driven hail,
    but more concerning could be further acceleration of surface winds
    at the apex of the bow as this core collapses, leading to a narrow
    corridor of very strong winds (potentially 80+ mph) at the surface.

    ..Bentley.. 06/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7odvj3QP_L4ooBcvIYv9HlRhewKRT5a5vTsscM1AMkr60wd648hqgC-AKiWrH6vj5HoBNnhjc= 7OmHEVKk3BO_fBnea8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...

    LAT...LON 31518515 31098435 30728377 30518369 30168383 30068418
    30368493 30948541 31138553 31348559 31518515=20


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