ACUS11 KWNS 062047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062046=20
NEZ000-062245-
Mesoscale Discussion 1056
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022
Areas affected...Portions of south-central/southeastern NE
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 062046Z - 062245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A lone supercell will continue to pose a threat for large
hail and severe winds in the short term. If additional thunderstorms
can develop, a watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...A single, robust supercell that developed and
subsequently strengthened over the past hour or two over eastern NE
has a history of producing hail up to 2 inches in diameter. This
cell is presently located to the north of a weak surface front. But,
around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-45 kt of effective bulk shear
will likely support continued convective organization and a severe
hail threat with this supercell in the short term. The main
uncertainty is whether additional robust thunderstorms will develop
along/near the surface boundary over the next couple of hours.
Recent visible satellite imagery shows a few attempts at convective
initiation farther west in central NE. If it becomes more certain
that multiple intense thunderstorms will develop across
south-central into southeastern NE in addition to the ongoing
supercell, then a watch may be needed.
..Gleason/Mosier.. 06/06/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9SbaUL9vgGrN_Vz0gAQJIW-mD-sqrk8us_KyjVYs0f5qna1ER3q-KT-2OtomVXJtVqGSI-l2N= C0IlQX9tpyp1Cv_5ZE$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 40809870 41509823 41549768 41239664 40939638 40179645
40029693 40039799 40109870 40789878 40809870=20
=3D =3D =3D
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