1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1052

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 06, 2022 19:21:03
    ACUS11 KWNS 061920
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061920=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-062145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1052
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

    Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas...and the
    western OK Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 061920Z - 062145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing within the Rockies will intensify
    as they move into the central/southern High Plains. These storms
    will initially pose a threat for strong to severe winds with an
    increasing hail threat through the late afternoon and evening. A
    watch may be needed in the coming hours to address this concern.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered convective showers have developed across much
    of the central Rockies and along the CO Front Range within the
    upslope flow regime over the past 1-2 hours. A few of these showers
    have deepened sufficiently to support a few lightning strikes,
    indicative of increasing buoyancy and diminishing inhibition.
    Mesoanalysis estimates suggests that some MLCIN remains in place and
    will limit the potential for robust convective in the near term.
    However, continued daytime heating and weak low-level moisture
    influx from the southeast will diminish any lingering weakness in
    MLCAPE profiles by late afternoon. As this occurs, thunderstorms
    will likely intensify into a mixture of discrete supercells and
    perhaps one or two clusters given the steep low-level lapse rates
    and potential for early storms to produce strong outflows. Storms
    will meander east into richer boundary-layer moisture through the
    late afternoon and evening hours. The improving CAPE profiles with
    eastward extent will help support an increasing hail threat given
    40-50 knot effective shear values and elongated hodographs. Trends
    in this activity will be monitored in the coming hours and a watch
    may be needed if/when a substantial severe threat becomes apparent.

    ..Moore/Mosier.. 06/06/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9_aih5pai7y-BbFPl8rqO8wP_d9y2hPKWlnfjUEbxliZqpFlkszZiClLanWZu8fWznyJnnQNc= cxLtIYdXLs-uggs5Yo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 39490265 39340175 38740119 37460129 36590146 36450171
    36440304 36850386 37830430 38880403 39470343 39490265=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 14, 2023 22:58:05
    ACUS11 KWNS 142257
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142257=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-150030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1052
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0557 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of southeast Oklahoma and western and
    central Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297...

    Valid 142257Z - 150030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The large hail threat persists across central Arkansas.

    DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed in Arkansas in a
    recovered airmass with MLCAPE around 2500 to 3000 J/kg and effective
    shear around 60 to 70 knots per SPC mesoanalysis. Given this
    extremely favorable kinematic and thermodynamic environment
    downstream. The supercell near Hot Springs, Arkansas recently
    reported 2.75 inch hail, and additional very large hail is possible
    with this storm and the others which have developed in the region.
    Visible satellite trends earlier suggested some storms may develop
    across southeast Oklahoma. Cu have since become more flat in the
    region, potentially due to subsidence in the wake of the shortwave
    crossing north-central Arkansas. SPC objective analysis still
    suggests an uncapped airmass with MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg, so
    cannot rule out additional development in eastern Oklahoma, but at
    this time it appears less likely than it did earlier.

    ..Bentley.. 06/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5NEoga6F8Hy8w-h-9mw2xYzu6Y3G01aMn_vzKsNKCc9Q8MhKaObSIJV5rSPC2-aNrMRoC39Eh= OULj2_tGxufmKOoX18$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

    LAT...LON 35139472 35419304 35059133 34219125 33619126 33159203
    33239317 33509417 33799476 33839520 34039589 35139472=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)