• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1048

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 06, 2022 16:59:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 061659
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061658=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-061930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1048
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1158 AM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of southern GA and much of FL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 061658Z - 061930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe hail and damaging winds may occur as thunderstorms
    develop through the afternoon. Watch issuance appears unlikely at
    this time.

    DISCUSSION...Water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak mid-level
    wave over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and north FL. This feature
    is expected to continue moving slowly eastward through the
    afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly winds are
    present to the east of this disturbance over much of the FL
    Peninsula and southern GA. Even though low-level flow will remain
    weak, gradually strengthening winds above 4 km AGL are supporting
    35-45 kt of deep-layer shear per latest mesoanalysis estimates. Rich
    low-level moisture is also in place across these regions. Diurnal
    heating of this moist airmass has already aided in the development
    of around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and upwards of 2500-3000 J/kg may
    ultimately develop by peak afternoon heating.

    Thunderstorms have begun to develop along both sea breezes early
    this afternoon, and expectations are for additional convective
    development over inland portions of southern GA, north FL, and much
    of the FL Peninsula over the next few hours. The sufficiently strong
    deep-layer shear should aid in updraft organization, with the
    enhanced mid/upper-level flow also allowing for some anvil-level
    venting. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores, as
    mid-level temperatures are seasonably cool (around -8 to -10 C at
    500 mb). Damaging downdraft winds may also occur as low-level lapse
    rates continue to gradually steepen with daytime heating. The
    overall severe threat still appears rather isolated this afternoon,
    and watch issuance is unlikely at this time.

    ..Gleason/Mosier.. 06/06/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4URvvYWWScBw42TwQVVb3Wbu4tvrehcx-Wr3kqBTepsvwgzN6mM97onBCi9LeNDtMg3dWLVfn= 4AtQGNSo_HcawE-4bM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29988345 30278410 30518435 30968378 31398323 31608282
    31848185 31698151 31188131 30858141 30558143 30138133
    29618116 29118090 28518052 28218055 27828038 26818000
    26238003 26388083 27208150 28808260 29988345=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 14, 2023 20:54:01
    ACUS11 KWNS 142053
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142053=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-142200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1048
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0353 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southeast Mississippi into southwestern
    Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 142053Z - 142200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across southeast MS into
    southwestern AL. A mix of supercells and bowing segments will
    promote a severe wind/hail threat and a tornado cannot be ruled out.
    A WW issuance will be needed soon to address the increasing threat.

    DISCUSSION...Much of southeastern MS into southwestern AL resides to
    the south of a baroclinic zone. Here, surface temperatures/dewpoints
    are in the lower 90s/70s F, overspread by 7.5-8 C/km lapse rates,
    contributing to 5500 J/kg SBCAPE (per 20Z mesoanalysis and also
    inferred by 18Z special soundings). Across this warm sector,
    unseasonably strong 700-300 mb flow is contributing to 60+ kts of
    effective bulk shear. Regional VADs and mesoanalysis shows
    hodographs with minimal low-level curvature and upper-level
    elongation, which will support HP supercells and short bowing
    segments (where cold pools dominate). 2+ inch hail and
    hurricane-force gusts are likely with the strongest storms and a
    tornado cannot be ruled out. Additionally, if convection in LA can
    grow upscale into a larger MCS across central MS, than southeast MS
    into southwest AL could experience the later stages of a derecho
    wind event. A WW issuance will be needed soon.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6qchams5ciFBm_CBe10rNXn0ZGGcSa5MOvZirU1JMYHE5vr4nZczRR8J90jWIAOW-gPlD9M5g= dKZKKdFG4_IU6A_kRk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

    LAT...LON 32458845 31928678 31408614 30958621 30778752 30858872
    31068947 31258958 31368917 31508893 32458845=20


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