ACUS11 KWNS 060431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060431=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-060630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Areas affected...south-central Kansas into northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

Valid 060431Z - 060630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms remain possible from southern
Kansas into northern Oklahoma, and trends will need to be monitored
for conditional wind threat into central Oklahoma later tonight.

DISCUSSION...Strong to severe storms currently extend from Woods
County OK toward Wichita KS, with large hail and damaging wind
threats. The western-most storm in Woods County currently has access
to an unstable air mass with relative warmth/lesser CIN compared to
points east. The 00Z OUN sounding shows around 340 J/kg MLCIN, with
700 mb temperatures near 14 C.=20

With time, outflow production from the mass of storms along the
KS/OK border may result in further mergers and an eventual MCS.
Given the warm temperatures around 700 mb, it may be necessary for a substantial cold pool to form for a severe threat to make it south
of I-40 in OK. A 50+ kt low-level jet will aid the propagation of
any such system that develops. As such, storm trends will be
monitored closely for any developing wind threat outside watch 312.

..Jewell.. 06/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5zWJvbGdfuKFHUYeBe5WA-S78bPmO8Lx8zzt2OkQMtgEsg2RHMMndRc99k-UGa1pCiJQoRWW9= X4-gxqIINxcAoQvYLo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 36919905 37569890 38009747 37979677 37649622 37079611
36679608 36229615 35699682 35119780 34959835 35189873
35479881 36309889 36919905=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 142029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142029=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-142200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 142029Z - 142200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Recovering air mass near and along an outflow boundary may
serve a focus for storm development late this afternoon. Extreme
buoyancy and strong vertical shear will likely support splitting
supercells with a risk for large to giant hail and damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of north-central and northeastern TX,
afternoon visible imagery showed deepening cumulus towers along a
remnant outflow boundary from previous convection. As the boundary
has modified through the afternoon, extreme instability has
developed (5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) owing to unusually steep mid-level
lapse rates and mid 70s F surface dewpoints. The strong buoyancy
colocated with 60-70 kt of effective shear observed from the 18z FTW
sounding is supportive of potentially intense splitting supercells.
Given the favorable storm mode and extreme cape/shear space, giant
hail (3+ in) hail will be possible with the most intense storms
across north-central and northeast TX. Depending on storm coverage,
some upscale growth later this evening into one or more organized
bowing clusters may also favor a risk for damaging wind gusts. A new
Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7NYVAf00YPkOgf2L93-oaMiPoTxd825_w_DTEBW49ZN2Sm0Upn6a0mT5srzaQJaRdkxw5OPvq= J0mzw4kpxXZM57uTpc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 32289796 32759768 33239737 33649648 33759586 33819527
33739475 33469434 33269419 32669410 32159413 32029426
31869462 31579535 31449603 31499666 31549710 31709757
31909782 32289796=20


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