ACUS11 KWNS 060033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060032=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-060300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southwest/south-central KS and northern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 060032Z - 060300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increasing severe risk
into this evening. A watch could eventually be needed for parts of
the area.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loops show recovering
sheltered boundary layer air and backed surface winds over parts of southwest/south-central KS into northern OK ahead of a weak surface
low and dryline evident over the TX/OK Panhandles. While this air
remains slightly capped amid generally weak large-scale ascent per
the DDC 00z sounding and visible satellite imagery, a few deepening
cumulus towers are becoming evident along the eastern and southern
edge of anvil debris overspreading the area from eastern CO. As lift
along the nose of a strengthening low-level jet advances northward
this evening in conjunction with a passing shortwave trough,
eventual convective initiation will be possible where surface
convergence is being maximized ahead of the surface low, though
large uncertainty remains.=20

If isolated convection can initiate along this corridor prior to
substantial nocturnal boundary-layer cooling, increasingly large, clockwise-turning low-level hodographs (200-400+ m2/s2 effective
SRH) amid strong instability would support a discrete supercell or
two along the KS/OK border capable of all hazards prior to upscale
growth with southward extent. Timing and location of convective
initiation and subsequent evolution is still unclear, though current
thinking is that a watch could eventually be needed for parts of the
area this evening.

..Weinman/Hart.. 06/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4qTYsU9Pn2qh-JcjYga0PzVccwcGn0NA8cXOyifU7FGfKuOrEjVSomK9H6EouWDSWEAyp35FS= LiFJq7l-LWlYHFZBXk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 37369727 36729658 36009644 35819676 35779768 35799878
35869946 36169981 36569993 36800017 37050032 37490043
37860031 38059984 38099907 37959831 37369727=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 141953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141952=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-142145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern/coastal GA and far north
FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141952Z - 142145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing threat for large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes may prompt watch issuance this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convection this morning, some
airmass recovery has occurred across parts of southeastern/coastal
GA and north FL. Recent radar imagery shows an outflow boundary from
prior thunderstorms is still continuing southward along/near the
FL/GA line. But, filtered daytime heating to the north of this
boundary has allowed surface temperatures to generally increase into
the low to mid 80s downstream of multiple supercells ongoing across southwestern into south-central GA. There are still some concerns
about instability due to a large area of remnant stratiform
precipitation, with MLCAPE quickly dropping off with northward
extent across coastal GA into southern SC. Regardless, deep-layer
shear still appears strong enough (35-45+ kt) to support supercells.
Current expectations are for the ongoing supercells to spread
eastward over the next few hours, while posing a threat for large
hail and damaging winds. Enough low-level shear is also present to
foster low-level updraft rotation and some risk for a couple of
tornadoes. Convective trends will be monitored for possible watch
issuance this afternoon.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-gDyurmKFMBRSL1hd4-uPp_CDalSldYSvvvQh9_z-r0f6wvO14P7IPHOhFoixyRC1NfUwyRz4= eIZ-JoNYlBYqL_OF_U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON 30908289 31808294 32068317 32108246 31958174 31618109
31008140 30398135 30338212 30648308 30908289=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)