ACUS11 KWNS 052013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052012=20
KSZ000-052215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Areas affected...parts of northern and central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 052012Z - 052215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convection developing over portions of north-central
Kansas seems likely to increase in coverage over the next couple of
hours, turning southeastward with time. WW may be required.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a small cluster of strong
updrafts over the Phillips/Rooks County KS vicinity, northeast of
the more cloudy/capped airmass that lingers across southwestern KS
at this time. This convection is occurring within the gradient on
the eastern fringe of the axis of greatest mixed-layer CAPE over
western Kansas, but still within a thermodynamic environment
sufficient to support severe potential -- mainly in the form of
large hail.

Various CAM runs differ with respect to convective evolution with
time, and given effects of the prior/overnight MCS, uncertainty
persists in the short term. Still, it appears likely that this
cluster will gradually increase in coverage, and shift southeastward
with time, on the northeastern fringe of the more capped
environment. Given the amply veering/increasing flow field with
height supporting potential for severe weather, watch issuance is
being considered for portions of the central Kansas vicinity.

..Goss/Guyer.. 06/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5OUyZ6UPiBAsqPLDF6UooZrq8pgD_4EWqRR62I0Q9r3_7Q-jF5ZqdN7AVDI7RE_KV2vseiMdo= NxDU20521sb5SlATsc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 39189954 39579903 39809853 39589744 38799637 37829647
37639777 38099939 38789959 39189954=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 141713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141712=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-141845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...portions of far northeast Texas into southwestern
Arkansas and northern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290...

Valid 141712Z - 141845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290
continues.

SUMMARY...Upscale growth of ongoing storms into an intense bow echo
is possible over the next few hours. Large hail and severe gusts are
the main concern. A few 65+ kt gusts are possible and trends are
being monitored for the development of a derecho-producing MCS.

DISCUSSION...Supercells that have been traversing the Red River have
shown signs of some upscale growth into a possible MCS. These storms
show 60 kft tops, with a wide area of 50 dBZ echoes exceeding 40 kft
per latest MRMS mosaic radar data. Latest satellite data also show a
broadening area of rapidly cooling cloud tops. The ongoing storms
are progressing east-southeastward along/just north of a diffuse
baroclinic zone, with low/upper 80s F temperatures on the cool/warm
side of the boundary. Along both sides, dewpoints are exceeding 75
F. Mid-level lapse rates of 7.5+ C/km are overspreading this very
moist low-level airmass over a long west-to-east corridor,
supporting extreme instability (4500+ J/kg SBCAPE) far downstream of
the upscale-growing convection. Coinciding this corridor of extreme
buoyancy is very strong (65+ kts) effective bulk shear, with
regional VADs and 16Z mesoanalysis showing hodographs that are
modestly curved at the low levels and elongated above 3 km AGL.=20=20

Potential exists for large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) if the
ongoing convection remains more cellular. If further upscale growth
occurs, an intense bow echo, capable of widespread severe winds and
some hurricane-force gusts, may develop and may set the stage for
initiating a derecho-type event. However, the occurrence of a
derecho is highly conditional on further upscale growth.

..Squitieri.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9wgkCy_DnkE6ruMLo_qkjvXDNbXgpsW2VgGRdhmCkwSFiIVRVJHGIUvl9qtaA3Qklf8s0T2pV= G279X-XP_S9c2pMMeQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33669459 33579316 33139210 32639184 32319209 32199268
32299353 32479423 32709466 33059496 33669459=20


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