• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1038

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 05, 2022 18:57:53
    ACUS11 KWNS 051857
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051857=20
    IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-052100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1038
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0157 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022

    Areas affected...Eastern Washington...eastern Oregon...and western
    Idaho

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 051857Z - 052100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
    through the remainder of the afternoon and may pose a damaging
    wind/large hail risk. This threat will likely remain too localized
    to warrant a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity mosaics show a few thunderstorms
    beginning to intensify across eastern WA and along the OR/ID border.
    This comes as lift associated with the approach of an upper low and
    within the left-exit region of a nearly zonal upper-level jet
    overspreads the region. Cool temperatures aloft combined with
    diurnal warming have bolstered MLCAPE values to around 500 J/kg. In
    combination with the aforementioned lift, this is supporting the
    recent uptick in thunderstorm activity. Further destabilization is
    expected heading into the afternoon, and will allow for deeper
    parcel trajectories and greater utilization of the stronger flow
    aloft. Consequently, the potential for storm organization should
    increase through the day. Isolated to widely scattered discrete
    cells may take on supercell characteristics and and pose a hail/wind
    threat. Latest hi-res guidance suggests that this threat will likely
    be maximized between 20-23 UTC across the WA/OR/ID region. However,
    storm coverage will likely remain isolated to widely scattered given
    no mesoscale features to focus ascent, and precludes watch issuance.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/05/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8F0gqCe7nVWYuhOKPwxlGvJBAeqvNHI-La5ar2jK4pMKj7akKyno8AO63LqjN7w8vQoJV9Ite= Dru3POOOZkvCScBhe0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

    LAT...LON 43421922 45151970 46761907 47911794 47981631 47671583
    46081609 44481575 43221524 42491546 42041638 42221758
    42741844 43421922=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 14, 2023 17:00:59
    ACUS11 KWNS 141700
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141700=20
    MSZ000-141830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1038
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of northern MS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289...

    Valid 141700Z - 141830Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for mainly large hail and damaging winds
    continues in the short term across northern Mississippi.

    DISCUSSION...Two separate areas of strong to severe thunderstorms
    are ongoing early this afternoon across parts of northern MS. The
    southern cluster/supercell is located closer to a convectively
    reinforced surface boundary, with low 80s temperatures and at least
    mid 70s dewpoints present downstream. Strong instability and
    deep-layer shear will support a continued threat for large hail and damaging/severe wind gusts as this activity spreads eastward into
    west-central AL over the next 1-2 hours. The northern cluster (in
    far northeastern MS) will move into northern AL in a similar time
    frame, but with less instability present downstream due to earlier
    convection that has moved through this region. Recent VWPs from KGWX
    also show some veering, and substantial strengthening with height in
    low/mid levels. Some threat for a tornado may exist in the short
    term with the southern cluster approaching Starkville/Columbus MS
    given the ample low-level shear present.

    ..Gleason.. 06/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_m4A1Q8q_pzJVWaIbALxa-65pj6kGq47RNQt8rC5uPUfF6en5hKi9NXjrDC45Qp8I5-LDQfyR= gMnpjIA37p7ruZgDLY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 32988964 33259019 33509022 33538970 33788929 34298876
    34618851 34648818 33298833 32978863 32988964=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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