ACUS11 KWNS 050539
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050538=20
KSZ000-050815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Areas affected...Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 050538Z - 050815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, with potential for wind damage
and large hail, is expected to continue across central Kansas over
the next few hours. Weather watch issuance will be possible as the
cluster of storms approaches the eastern edge of WW 309.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Dodge City shows
an MCS, with embedded bowing structures, located across
north-central Kansas. Over the next few hours, this cluster of
strong thunderstorms will continue to move southeastward into a
pocket of moderate instability located from northern Oklahoma into north-central Kansas. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE along this
corridor in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D
VWP from Dodge City has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. And the RAP is
analyzing a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet over west-central Kansas.
This will continue to support a wind-damage threat associated with
the leading edge of the stronger cells. Recently, a wind gust of 50
knots was reported at Russell, Kansas. As the MCS moves
southeastward, this caliber of wind gust will continue to be
possible. Isolated large hail could also occur with the more intense
cells as well.

..Broyles/Grams.. 06/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9xKfQTOGs1nVFsCsJ5FZ-hvvyofrNainzmYZNWFnMVwK-41iRyCojVawbkCdXW6TkCBfS1NZ9= _6nPhjbkZDo-VY6P7o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 37999783 37639877 37539969 37890032 38170039 38430017
38539960 38829878 39369806 39589764 39399712 39009690
38569704 38259740 37999783=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 141527
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141526=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-141730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern AL into southwestern
GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141526Z - 141730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...If supercells can be sustained, then large to very large
hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes may occur. Watch issuance is
possible if thunderstorms strengthen further.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed across parts of
southeastern AL along/south of a front and ongoing small cluster in south-central GA. This activity is being aided by a 20-30 kt
southwesterly level jet and related warm air advection. Continued
daytime heating of a very moist low-level airmass, and the presence
of steep mid-level lapse rates, has already fostered around
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The latest VWP from KEOX shows a veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid/upper
levels, with 50-60 kt of westerly winds present at mid levels.
Similar values of deep-layer shear will easily support supercells
with any thunderstorms that can be sustained into parts of
southwestern GA. Large to very large hail will be a concern, but a
couple of tornadoes may also occur as the west-southwesterly
low-level jet and 0-1 km SRH may modestly strengthen further through
the afternoon. Signs of increasing supercell coverage/intensity may
prompt watch issuance at some point in the next couple of hours.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7qacv3pB6QOI2HlCR4B_iz9Or-Fjw27LXoVwbjgVcKY15y5NBjQlhppxPOX6aoLz8O02yiBLM= y-QKD96pMID_n1E_4c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 31048498 31048607 31308612 31548607 31558584 31578534
31748510 31938498 31888363 31788317 31448317 30978322
30858379 31048498=20


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